瑞士：金融部门评估计划关于宏观审慎政策和房地产风险的技术说明

IMF Country Report No.25/298 SWITZERLAND FINANCIAL SECTOR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM November2025 TECHNICAL NOTE ONMACROPRUDENTIAL POLICYAND REAL ESTATE RISKS This paperonSwitzerlandwas prepared by a staff team of the International MonetaryFund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund SWITZERLAND FINANCIAL SECTOR ASSESSMENT PROGRAM October 24, 2025 TECHNICAL NOTE MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY AND REAL ESTATE RISKS This Technical Note was prepared by IMF staff in thecontext of the Financial Sector Assessment Programin Switzerland. It contains technical analysis anddetailed information underpinning the FSAP’sfindings and recommendations. Further information Prepared ByMonetary and Capital MarketsDepartment SWITZERLAND CONTENTS Glossary __________________________________________________________________________________________4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________________________________________________5 INTRODUCTION _________________________________________________________________________________7 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY ___________________________8 A. Ability and Willingness to Act __________________________________________________________________8B. Effective Coordination and Cooperation ______________________________________________________10C. Accountability and Communication___________________________________________________________11 MACROPRUDENTIAL TOOLS AND FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMIC RISK ANALYSIS __________15 A. Macroprudential Tools________________________________________________________________________15B. Systemic Risk Analysis ________________________________________________________________________23C. Macroprudential Policy Settings ______________________________________________________________25 REAL ESTATE MARKET IMBALANCES AND EFFECTIVENESS OF SELF REGULATION _________30 A. Vulnerabilities from the Real Estate Market ___________________________________________________30B. Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies to Contain Mortgage Market Imbalances __________36C. Assessment and Recommendations __________________________________________________________39 COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT MACROPRUDENTIAL TOOLS ______________39 A. Counterfactual Analysis _______________________________________________________________________40B. Assessment and Recommendations___________________________________________________________45 BOXES 1. Industry Standards in the Swiss Mortgage Market ____________________________________________202. Relationship between Self-Regulation and Risk Weights for Mortgage Loans_________________263. Experience with Positive Neutral CCyB by Swiss Peers ________________________________________284. Imputed Rents Taxation and Proposed Reforms ______________________________________________33 FIGURES 1. Long-term Evolution of Swiss RRE Prices, Income, and Mortgage Loans _______________________72. Macroprudential Oversight in Switzerland _____________________________________________________93. Macroprudential Authorities in Europe (EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland, UK _10 4. Commercial Real Estate Market _______________________________________________________________255. Macro-Financial Conditions ___________________________________________________________________316. Household Debt and Assets___________________________________________________________________327. House Prices and Overvaluation Estimates ____________________________________________________358. Housing Vacancy and Construction ___________________________________________________________369. Housing Affordability _________________________________________________________________________3610. Deviation from Prudent Lending Standards with Respect to _________________________________3711. Deviation from Prudent Lending Standards with Respect to Affordability Across Banks _____3812. DSTI and LTI Distributions in Three Mortgage Loan Segments_______________________________4113. Mortgage Lending Flow Differentiated by DSTI Threshold ___________________________________42 TABLES 1. Main Recommendations _______________________________________________________________________62. Macroprudential Toolkit in Switzerland and European Peer Countries ________________________22 CAOCapital Adequacy OrdinanceCCyBCountercyclical Capital BufferCCoBCapital Conservation BufferCEOChief Executive OfficerCET1Common Equity Tier 1CRECommercial Real EstateDTIDSTIDebt to Income RatioDebt Service to Income RatioEAEBAEuro AreaEuropean Banking AuthorityECBEuropean Central BankEEAEuropean Economic AreaESRBEtPEuropean Systemic Risk BoardException to PolicyEUEuropean UnionFINMASwiss Financial M