扩大优质公共投资以实现更强劲的增长：保加利亚

Scaling Up Quality PublicInvestment for Stronger Vahram Stepanyan and Iglika Vassileva SIP/2025/149 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2025DEC IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department Scaling Up Quality Public Investment for Stronger GrowthPrepared by Vahram Stepanyan and Iglika Vassileva Authorized for distribution by Fabian Bornhorst IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:The paper discusses Bulgaria’s public investment needs and its efficiency and assessesprospects for accelerating economic growth and income convergence through scaling up quality publicinvestment. Utilizing substantial EU grants to fund public investment offers Bulgaria a unique opportunity tofinance important infrastructure projects without relying on debt. However, slow absorption of these grant fundsand inefficiencies in public investment management remain significant challenges. The analysis highlights the RECOMMENDED CITATION:Vahram Stepanyan and Iglika Vassileva (2025) “Scaling Up Quality PublicInvestment for Stronger Growth”, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, Selected Issues Paper, SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Scaling Up Quality PublicInvestment for Stronger Growth Bulgaria Prepared by Vahram Stepanyan and Iglika Vassileva BULGARIA SELECTED ISSUES November 3, 2025 Approved ByEuropean Department Prepared by Vahram Stepanyan and Iglika Vassileva.Sabiha Mohona and Cheryl Li provided research support. CONTENTS SCALING UP QUALITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT FOR STRONGER GROWTH__________2 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________2B. Public Investment Needs and Efficiency______________________________________________3C. Availability and Absorption of EU Funds _____________________________________________5D. Simulating the Impact of Scaled Up Quality Public Investment ______________________7 FIGURES1. Real GDP Growth and GDP Per Capita _______________________________________________2 2. Availability and Quality of Infrastructure _____________________________________________43. Capital Stock and Public Investment _________________________________________________54. EU Funds Absorption_________________________________________________________________65. Public Investment Scenarios__________________________________________________________86. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators’ Difference from Baseline_______________________9 ANNEX I. Baseline Model Calibration for Bulgaria_____________________________________________10 SCALING UP QUALITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT FOR A.Introduction 1.Economic momentum has been strong despite an uncertain environment, yet a morerobust growth is needed for faster income convergence.While convergence has been advancing,incomes in Bulgaria still lag most of its peers (Figure 1), and inflationary pressures are emergingpointing to the need to boost the supply side of the economy. Furthermore, Bulgaria has regional 2.Bulgaria can boost economic growth and income convergence by scaling up qualitypublic investment.High quality public investment can be a catalyst for sustainable economicgrowth and development (IMF, 2020). Better availability and higher quality of infrastructure could 3.Increasing the efficiency of public investment will yield even higher growth dividends.The significant investment needs could be better addressed and the impact on growth magnified by improving the efficiency of public investment. Estimates show that Bulgaria could achieve about1.8 percent of GDP in savings by improving the efficiency of public investment (Hallaert et al, 2022). 4.There are substantial EU funds available to finance a significant increase in publicinvestment.Bulgaria has a major opportunity to benefit from EU funds totaling around Euro 18.7billion3(about 18 percent of 2024 GDP) to scale up quality public investment. These funds are 5.The remainder of this paper is structured as follows:Section B looks at the quality of theinfrastructure in certain areas, discusses the state of public investment and its efficiency, andoutlines areas for improvement as well as possible reforms to that end; Section C discusses theavailability of the EU funds, their slow absorption and reasons; Section D presents a model that is B.Public Investment Needs and Efficiency 6.There is substantial room to improve the availability and quality of infrastructure, andhigher and more efficient public investment is key to achieving this.Bulgaria’s quality andavailability of infrastructure in many areas lag the EU average (Ari et al, 2020). For example, there issubstantial room to improve the quality of transport-related infrastructure as the transport networkappears both inadequately maintai