卢森堡：技术援助报告养老金预测评估

LUXEMBOURG December2025 Prepared ByChristoph Freudenberg, Timm Bönke and Céline Thévenot Fiscal Affairs Department The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) to the authorities ofLuxembourg(the "TA recipient") in response to their request for technicalassistance. This report (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to IMFExecutive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the TArecipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff and other technical assistance providers and donors The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are thoseof the Fiscal Affairs Contents ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS_____________________________________________________________5 PREFACE _________________________________________________________________________________________6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________________________________________________7 RECOMMENDATIONS ___________________________________________________________________________9 I. INTRODUCTION _____________________________________________________________________________10 II. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK _____________________________________________________________11 III. SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS_____________________________________________13A. Review of Recent Projections__________________________________________________________________13 B. Drivers of Projection Deviations _______________________________________________________________16C. Recommendations ____________________________________________________________________________23 IV. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS _______________________________________________________________27A. Overview of Projection Methodology _________________________________________________________27 B. Volatility of Past Projections___________________________________________________________________27C. Main Drivers of Past Volatility _________________________________________________________________29D. Recommendations ____________________________________________________________________________32 BOXES Box 1. Accuracy of Current Year’s Estimates ____________________________________________________________22Box 2. The Potential Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market and Pension Finances _____37 FIGURES Figure 1. Institutional Roles in Pension Projections _____________________________________________________12Figure 2. Decomposition of the projection deviation of the balance at a 1 year horizon betweenRevenue and Spending Side_____________________________________________________________________________14Figure 3. Revenue, Expenditure and Balance Projections, 2016-2024 __________________________________14Figure 4. Relative Deviations of Revenue and Expenditure Projections at a 1-year Horizon in Luxembourg,Germany and France, 2015-2024 (percent) _____________________________________________________________15Figure 5. Main Components of the Revenues and their Projections, 2018-24 __________________________17 Figure 10. Illustration of other Expenditure Components, 2018-24_____________________________________21Figure 11. Relative Deviation between 1-year Projection and Observation of the Financial Balance, __222018-2024 _______________________________________________________________________________________________22Figure 12. Accuracy of Current Year t Aggregates, Estimated in Mid-year t and in t-1_________________23Figure 13. Projection Deviations by Country and Time: Expenditure Rise by 2050, Percent of GDP __________________________________________________________________________________________29Figure 14: Drivers of Shift to 2026_______________________________________________________________________30Figure 15: Drop in Contributors’ Growth Assumption __________________________________________________30 TABLES Table 1. Mean Error and Root Mean Square Error by Projection Horizon for the Main Aggregates (2016-23) _______________________________________________________________________________________________________13Table 2. Mean Error and Root Mean Square Error in Peer Countries (1-year horizon, 2016 -23)_______15Table 3. Mean Error and Root Mean Square Error by Projection Horizon for the Revenue Components(2016-23) ________________________________________________________________________________________________17Table 4. Mean Error and Root Mean Square Error by Projection Horizon for the Expenditure Components(2016-23) ________________________________________________________________________________________________19 BIBLIOGRAPHY___________________________________________________________________________________ ANNEXES Annex 1. Comparison of Aggregates Sensitivity to Inflation in Peer Countries _______________________Annex 2. Decomposition of Project Deviations ______________________________________________________