健康老龄化能促进劳动力供给吗？来自韩国的证据

Can Healthy Aging BoostLabor Supply? Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, DiaaNoureldin, Galip Kemal Ozhan WP/25/260 progress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working Paper ResearchDepartment Can Healthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from KoreaPrepared byBertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin, Galip Kemal Ozhan Authorized for distribution by Deniz Igan IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the role of ‘healthy aging’ in boosting labor supply in Korea. First, we usemicrodata from surveys to assess whether there is evidence that the physical abilities of individuals aged 50years and above have been improving over successive cohorts. Second, we investigate whether healthimprovements among older workers influence their labor market outcomes, such as the decision to supply laboror to retire. We use an instrumental variable approach to enable causal inference, proxying exogenous RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gruss, B., E. Huang, A. Lagerborg, D. Noureldin, G. K. Ozhan, 2025. “CanHealthy Aging Boost Labor Supply? Evidence from Korea”. IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, WORKING PAPERS Can Healthy Aging Boost LaborSupply? Prepared byBertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, DiaaNoureldin, andGalip Kemal Ozhan1 Contents 1.Introduction............................................................................................................................................42.Data.........................................................................................................................................................7 Appendix............................................................................................................................................................21 References.........................................................................................................................................................28 Figure 1 Global Population Aging Trends.............................................................................................................4Figure 2. Additional Years of Life Expectancy, 2000-21.......................................................................................5Figure 3. Sample Coverage..................................................................................................................................7Figure 4. Health Indicator Averages, by Age and Country....................................................................................8Figure 5. Labor Force Status by Age, Korea vs. Japan........................................................................................9Figure 6. Labor Force Participation Gender Gaps, Korea vs. Japan..................................................................10Figure 7. Healthy Aging: Time Trend Coefficients, Korea vs. Peers...................................................................12 TABLESTable 1. Effect of Health on Decision to Participate and/or Retire: OLS vs. 2SLS, Korea..................................15Table 2. Effect of 1-Decade Improvements in Health on Probability of Working and/or Retiring, Korea............15Table 3. Heterogeneous Effects of Health on Labor Force Participation, Korea................................................16Table 4. Effect of Health on the Decision to Participate in the Labor Market and/or Retire: OLS vs. 2SLS, Asia-5 APPENDIX FIGURES Appendix Figure 1. Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors.....................................................................................22 APPENDIXTABLES Appendix Table 1. Data Sources and Availability: Household Surveys by Country............................................21Appendix Table 2. OLS Regressions: Determinants of Health Indicators, Korea...............................................23Appendix Table 3. OLS Regressions: Determinants of Health Indicators, Asia-5 (Excl. Korea).........................23Appendix Table 4. Mundlak Regressions, Korea................................................................................................24 Appendix Table 6. Heterogeneity in Healthy Aging Trends, Korea.....................................................................26Appendix Table 7. Effect of Better Health on Labor Market Outcomes: Robustness to Alternative InstrumentalVariables, Korea..................................................................................................................................................26Appendix Table 8. Effect of Better Health on Labor Market Outcomes: Robustness to Controlling for Year FixedEffects, Korea............................................................................................