价格过低和过度使用：2025年化石燃料补贴数据更新

Underpriced andOverused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, IanParry, Paulina Schulz-Antipa, and Nate Vernon-Lin WP/25/270 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 UpdatePrepared by Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa,and Nate Vernon-Lin Authorized for distribution by Dora BenedekDecember 2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper provides a bi-annual assessment of efficient fossil fuel prices and subsidies for 170countries, based on a comprehensive analysis of environmental and other externalities from fuel consumption.Globally, explicit (or fiscal) subsidies were $725 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) in 2024. Implicit subsidies,primarily underpricing of environmental costs, were $6.7 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), with three quarters fromunderpriced air pollution and climate change.*Relative to GDP, explicit subsidies have stablized at pre-COVIDlevels while implicit subidies have increased somewhat and are expected to rise gradually until 2035. Explicitsubsidy removal would reduce CO2emissions by six percent below baseline levels in 2035, avoid 70,000premature air pollution deaths annually, raise 0.6 percent of GDP in government revenue, and generate neteconomic benefits worth 0.5 percent of GDP. Removal of both explicit and implicit subsidies (through correctivetaxes) generates substantially larger benefits, such as 1.1 million fewer premature air pollution deaths and a 46percent reduction in CO2emissions, but would be politically difficult. Subsidizing fuels is an inefficient way tosupport low-income households: for every dollar spent on explicit fuel subsidies, the poorest 20 percent ofhouseholds receive just 8 cents. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Black, Simon, Weronika Celniak, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa, NateVernon-Lin, 2025. “Underpriced, Overused, and Fueling Inequality: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update”Working paper, IMF, Washington, DC. Underpriced and Overused: FossilFuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update Prepared by Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, IanParry, Paulina Schulz Antipa, and Nate Vernon-Lin1 Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................................31.Introduction..............................................................................................................................................52.Conceptual, Measurement, and Data Issues ..........................................................................................73.Quantitative Results for Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Efficient Fuel Prices ..............................................104.Distributional Impacts on Households of Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Their Reform ...............................205.Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................26Annex I. Further Details on Methodology............................................................................................................27Annex II. Subsidies from Other Sectors and Externalities ..................................................................................32Annex III. Explicit and Implicit Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2024, Selected Countries .................................................33Annex IV. Global Fuel Consumption Patterns and Household Budget Shares...................................................34Annex V. Country Coverage and Household Budget Surveys............................................................................37Annex VI. Measuring the Impact of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform on Fuel Producers..........................................40Annex VII. Urban vs. Rural Divide.......................................................................................................................42References..........................................................................................................................................................43 FIGURES 1. Conceptual Distinction Between Explicit and Implicit Fuel Subsidies ...............................................................92. Comparing Current and Efficient Fuel Prices, G20 and Select Other