阿尔巴尼亚：选定问题

IMF Country Report No.25/346 ALBANIA SELECTED ISSUES December 2025 This paperonAlbaniawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund ALBANIA SELECTED ISSUES December9, 2025 ApprovedByAnke Weber Prepared ByMaximilian Fandl, Giorgia De Nora and EugenaTopi CONTENTS A BUILDING BLOCK APPROACH FOR INTRODUCING A POSITIVE NEUTRALCOUNTERCYCLICAL CAPITAL BUFFER IN ALBANIA____________________________________2A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________2B. Building Blocks for a Positive Neutral CCyB ____________________________________________4C. Conclusion ____________________________________________________________________________16 BOX 1. The Losses-to-Buffer Method for Positive Neutral CCyB Calibration __________________11 FIGURES1. Bank Capital Composition and Distribution Within the Albanian Banking System______4 2. Building Blocks to Explore a Positive Neutral CCyB Regime ____________________________63. Macro-Financial Conditions: Selected Indicators _______________________________________74. Losses-to-Buffer Approach Applied to Albania________________________________________105. Stress Test Results for D-SIBs _________________________________________________________12 TABLES 1. CCyB Rates in the CESEE and Caucasus Region ________________________________________32. Overview of Positive Neutral CCyB Calibration Methods _______________________________8 ANNEX I. Losses-to-Buffer Approach: Horizon 1 Statistics _______________________________________17 A BUILDING BLOCK APPROACH FOR INTRODUCING A A.Introduction 1.Positive neutral Countercyclical Capital Buffers (CCyB) have seen growing adoption inrecent years.The Bank of England pioneered a CCyB framework with a positive neutral rate in 2016,and a total of 23 countries have introduced CCyB regimes with explicit cycle-neutral rates by 2.Positive neutral CCyBs boost resilience through higher releasable buffer requirementsover the financial cycle.In the event of macro-financial shocks, more capital is available to bereleased by the macroprudential authority, compared to the conventional “zero neutral” CCyBapproach (Adrian, 2024).International evidence, including from the COVID-19 pandemic, shows that 3.There are two key differences between a positive neutral and zero-neutral CCyB. •First, the ex-ante announced positive neutral rate provides a ‘default setting’ that servesas an anchor for bank expectations.Banks can expect the CCyB requirement to be set at thepositive neutral rate for most of the time, or above the neutral rate in case of heightened cyclicalsystemic risks. The exceptions are periods of financial stress, when the CCyB is released, and •Second, a higher average CCyB rate through the cycle implies more room for bold releasesshould this be warranted.Since the positive neutral rate does not constitute a higherminimum 4.The literature does not yet provide a hands-on approach for policymakers to explore apositive neutral CCyB across all relevant dimensions.Some papers discuss the case for an explicitcycle-neutral rate (Herrera-Bravo et al, 2024, Leitner et al, 2023), without elaborating on operationaldesign considerations at the country level. The BCBS (2024) report and a joint ECB-ESRB report 5.While Albania has advanced its macroprudential policies, the current regulatoryframework includes limited releasable buffers. Albania has phased in the Capital ConservationBuffer and buffers for domestic systemically important banks (D-SIB) and recently raised the CCyB toa positive (yet not cycle-neutral) rate for the first time, at 0.25 percent effective from June 2025, and0.5 percent effective from December 2025. The Combined Buffer Requirement (CBR) applies on topof a Pillar 1 requirement of 12 percent, which is higher than the 8 percent under the EU Single Sources: Bank of Albania and authors' calculations. 6.To explore the feasibility and calibration of a positive neutral CCyB for Albania, thispaper employs a modular framework with six building blocks. These include legal feasibility,macro-financial conditions, cost benefit analysis, design considerations, integration into themacroprudential framework, and communication strategy. The paper finds that Albania’s robust B.Building Blocks for a Positive Neutral CCyB 7.The starting point for exploring the possible introduction of a positive neutral CCyB isan assessment of whether threepreconditionsare met. •Legal feasibility:Is the country’s legal basis for the CCyB sufficiently flexible to accommodate a •Macro-financial conditions:As a profitable, well-capitalized and liquid banki