利比里亚：气候政策诊断

LIBERIA Climate Policy Diagnostic December2025 Prepared By Suphachol Suphachalasai, Daniel Bastidas, Pedro Juarros, Berit Lindholdt-Lauridsen,Michal Pietrkiewicz, Sunalika Singh, and Nuwan Suriyagoda Fiscal Affairs Department High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportFiscal Affairs Department Liberia: Climate Policy DiagnosticPrepared by Suphachol Suphachalasai, Daniel Bastidas, Pedro Juarros, Berit Lindholdt-Lauridsen,Michal Pietrkiewicz, Sunalika Singh, Nuwan Suriyagoda TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: Climate-related risks are macro-critical considerations for Liberia. This Climate PolicyDiagnostic identifies policy reforms that reduce balance of payment risks, boost fiscal resilience, andgenerate positive climate outcomes. A comprehensive reform agenda is needed to promote water andfood security, and a robust package of fiscal policies is key to accelerating energy access and transition.While efficient disaster risk management and financing will save lives and build economic resilience,sustainable forestry and land-use are vital to livelihoods and can be supported by good fiscal policies.Stronger climate governance would help streamline climate policy implementation and reduce coststoward building resilience. In addition, strategic mobilization of climate finance and leveraging the privatesector are crucial to closing the financing gap. JEL Classification Numbers: H3, H23, L5, Q2, Q54 The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Main Messages and Recommendations Climate-related risks are macro-critical considerations for Liberia.Today, about half of Liberia’spopulation still lives below the national poverty line. Approximately 70 percent of the population do nothave access to electricity and a quarter are without access to clean drinking water. Liberia is particularlyprone to floods and storms and climate change is expected to increase downside risks with potentialnegative impacts on the country’s medium-term outlook and long-term macroeconomic stability. IMF’sanalysis shows that Liberia could face a loss of 2 percent of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capitaby 2050 and up to 5 percent by 2100 under a high emission scenario and without effective adaptation.Our analysis also shows that extreme precipitation shocks reduce food production by 1.6 percentagepoints (p.p.), per capita GDP growth by 3.3 p.p., and increase inflation by about 2 p.p. Meaningfulprogress on policy reforms including in the areas of building climate resilience and embarking on a greentransition are key to raising living standards and achieving lasting economic growth in Liberia. A comprehensive reform is needed to promote water and food security.While Liberia is endowedwith abundant water resources, the increased intensity and frequency of extreme rainfalls and floodingpose significant risks to the water and food sector. An overarching water resources law should bedeveloped to provide clear responsibilities of line ministries and stakeholders. To enhance water pricing,the authorities could (i) develop a multi-year performance-based water tariff structure that is cost-reflective and include social tariff, (ii) operationalize the existing Water Supply and Sanitation Commissionas an independent regulatory authority to oversee tariffs and utility, and (iii) incentivize private sectorparticipation in metering and billing, through performance-based contracts. To promote sustainableirrigation and water abstraction in the rural areas, the authorities could consider (i) a regulatory frameworkfor groundwater and irrigation water abstraction, e.g. through permits and tariff structure targeting largecommercial users, and (ii) pilot cost-recovery mechanisms to finance the operational and maintenancecosts of rural water and irrigation systems, with safeguards for small-farmers. Efficient disaster risk management and financing will save lives and build economic resilience.While the government has adequate contingent reserve and the Road Fund and has put in place asizeable contingent lines of credit, responsible entities receive limited budget allocations and do not haveaccess to funds in times of disasters. A heavy reliance on donor funding can be a double-edged sword,posing risks to social protection programs and disaster response efforts. Liberia could (i) develop anim