早晨洞察：2025年12月26日

Morning Insight:December 26, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Cotton:With relatively fast sales progress at ginning plants and supportfrom market sentiment, cotton futures remain strong. Although China hasseen a bumper cotton harvest this season, market feedback indicates that However, the continued rise in cotton prices has squeezed profit marginsfor downstream yarn mills, while cotton yarn imports have increased, Equity Index Futures:The spring rally has begun; watch for upsideresistance. Recently, A-share markets have performed strongly, with theShanghai Composite posting seven consecutive gains. In terms of drivers, Second, in January and February, economic data releases and corporateearnings are typically in a lull. Traditional policy expectations Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the Shanghai Compositeapproaching the 4,000-point psychological level and the previous higharound 4,034. If incremental marginal drivers are insufficient, these Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. China's integration of the digital and real economies has maintained a industrialization, increased investment in industrial digitization and a Value-added tax (VAT) invoice data from the State Taxation Administrationshowed that the sales revenue of core industries in the digital economy Within the sector, sales revenue of smart equipment manufacturing and Enterprises stepped up investment in industrial digitization. FromJanuary to November, manufacturing enterprises' spending on purchases of Sales revenue of data-driven industries rose 6.3 percent year on year in During the same period, sales revenue for internet platforms that cover Sales revenue of internet retail services, including live-streaming e-commerce, saw an 11.9 percent rise, while that of supply chain management 2. China's green electricity trading volume surged in the first 11 months Administration (NEA) on Thursday. From January to November, China's green electricity trading volumereached 296.7 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh). In November alone, the figure Green electricity is generated from renewable energy sources such aswind, solar, or biomass. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021- The country has built the world's largest clean power system and carbon 3. The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan,strengthened 79 pips to 7.0392 against the U.S. dollar Thursday, Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consultingbusiness in the futures market, as approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (Approval No. [2011]1449). The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures analyzed in the report may fluctuate, and past The research services mentioned in this report may not be suitable for individual clients and do not constitute private consulting advice forclients. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report are appropriate when applied to their specific situation.Under no circumstances do the research or opinions expressed in this report constitute investment advice to any individual person. Under Copyright Statement The copyright of this report is solely owned by the Company. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy,publish, or quote this report in any form. If consent is obtained from the Company for citation or publication, it must be used within thepermitted scope, and the source must be indicated as "Guotai Junan Futures Research," along with a reminder of the risks associated Unless otherwise specified, all trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are owned by Guotai Junan Futures orare legallyauthorized for use. No individual or instit