2026能源双碳年度展望
Energy and Carbon Annual Outlook2026能源双碳年度展望 张默涵Zhang Mohan从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317何颢昀He Haoyun从业资格号Qualification No：F03100810投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021074孙泽宇Sun Zeyu从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Abstract摘要 Fortraditional energy,the slowdown in crude oil supply growthmay help prices bottom out; tightthermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; accelerated growth in LNG supply is exertingdownward pressure on global gas price levels. Forcarbon,China's market is expected to return to a supply-tight state in 2026, and carbon pricesmay rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the centrallevel possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices. Risks:Overseas trade policies risks;Sales fell short of expectations;Abnormal changes inatmospheric circulation;Extreme weather transition; 传统能源方面，原油供应增速放缓或促进价格筑底；动力煤供应趋紧，煤价中枢预期上移；LNG供应增长加速打压全球气价中枢。 碳市场方面，2026年中国市场重回供应偏紧状态，碳价或震荡上行；欧洲碳价预期区间震荡，中枢或跟随天然气价格小幅下移。 风险因素：贸易政策风险；销售不及预期；大气环流变化异常；极端天气转换等 RelatedReports相关报告: 20251023 Quarterly Outlook of Energy, Power, Carbon能源电碳行业展望20251106 US LNG Prices May Rise on Strong Export出口强劲或推升美国气价20251209 China Diesel Consumption Forecast2026-2030年中国柴油消费展望20251208 Compliance Demand May Drive Carbon Prices to Rebound履约需求或使碳价筑底反弹望 * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports Content目录 1. Crude Oil.............................................................................................................................42. Coal......................................................................................................................................53. Natural Gas.........................................................................................................................63.1LNG..............................................................................................................................................................63.2Regional Market..........................................................................................................................................74. Carbon.................................................................................................................................84.1Chinese Market...........................................................................................................................................84.2European Market........................................................................................................................................9Appendix: Chinese Version................................................................................................101.原油：供需宽松，过剩压力边际放缓................................................................................102.动力煤：筑底已完成，启动新周期...................................................................................113.天然气：LNG新投产保持高增速，进出口市场格局分化.................................................123.1LNG市场...................................................................................................................................................123.2区域天然气市场.........................................................................................................................................124.碳市场................................................................................................................................134.1中国市场.....................................................................................................................................................134.2欧洲市场.....................................................................................................................................................14CITIC Futures International Research Reports................................................................15 Charts图表 Chart 1: Global Petroleum Balance Sheet..........................................................................................................4Chart 2: Chinese Thermal Coal Balance Sheet.................................................................................................5Chart 3: LNG Export Capacity and Utilization....................................................................................................6Chart 4: LNG Export Utilization VS Prices..........................................................................................................6Chart 5: Global Natural Gas Balance Sheet.......................................................................................................7Chart 6: European Carbon Emission Market Supply and Demand Balance Sheet......................................9图表1：全球石油供需平衡表............................................................................
