英伟达（NVDA）：当前估值到底有多低？

NVIDIA (NVDA): Just how cheap is it? (if all goes according io pfan fhtis riay be our fasf rnofe of Zfe year. We wisf you all a worder/u!(apus Ja(o au) Uo nof aas jew. pue uoseas epgo1/ Stacy A, Resgon, Ph.D.160 6Cceiz I+alecyris@cngbemstersgccm Nvidia's performance has been somewhat challenged as of late..While putting upclecent overall performence (vith the shares up ~30% YTD). the stock has stsgnated sinceJuly, end has subste/ntielly unclerperformed the SOX inclex this yeer (with the brcader semispace up 38% YTD) (Exhibit 1) ven a5 earnings estimetes have continued to march everhigher (Exhibit 2) Alrick Shaw+1917 344 6454sl-ickshewxt:ersteinsg.cam Arpsd von Nerres+1 317 344 8451arpodxonremesbernstainsg.com Consequently, the shares have seen substantial multiple compression with Nvidia'sP/FE falling by 27%: through the year, currenty siting just a hair under 25x (Exhibit 3). But howr cheap is it? 25x P/FE may nol seem particularly cheap for your ordinary stock.But this is NVIDIA, For this company, 25x fcrwarc EPS would suggest the shres sre tradingin the 11l" percentile of valuation over the last 10 ygers (i.e, pretty cheeo on an absolutebasis) (Exhibit 4). And relative to the broader semicanductor industry the situation is muchnpre stark. Relative to the SOX NVDA currently trades at a 13% discount, in the FIRSTpercernlile;indeed, over the last 10 years there have only been THIRTEEN DAYS whereNVDA's stock traded cheaper relative to the SOX than it is trading now. Investors buying Nvidia's stock at current levels have historically done very well.investors buying Nvidis's sheres below 25x over the lest 10 years have lbeen well rewardec.with average 1-yeer returns of over 150% with zero instances of a negetive clrawdownwhen held over thet period (Exhibit 6). While we understand some of the Al angst that has affected the sector lately, webelieve Nvidia is set up well into the new year. The stock has been hit recently (inparticular by worries over capex sustainability and the GPU/TPU debate), However, capexintentions look fine at this point, and the GPU narrative rmay be recovering sorne of itsmojo relative to ASICs. Rubin is on its way, with CES and GTC potentislly providing furtherctalysts. H2O0 approvsl from the Trump administrs.tion may provicle some Chin. upsicle atsome point. And overall numbers eppeer likely low in the context of the compsny's $5O0B+Blackwell/Rubin guidance, Coupled with what eppeers to be extremely ettractive valuationwe believe the set-up is locking good into the new year; we wpuld be buyers here. Have a wonderful holiday! We rate Nvidia Out;xeriorm; S275 PT. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS NvDA (Outperform, S275): The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible DETAILS EXHIBT 5:...and in the first percentile relative to the50X (indeed, there have been only 13 days in the lastdecade where the shares have been cheaper relative tothe sector than they are today) EXHI3/T 4: NVDA currently is trading in the 11th pecentileof absolute P/FE valuation talken over the last 10years... EXHI3/T 6: Investors buying NVDA's stock under 25x over the last 10 years have been rewarded, with average 1-yearreturns over 150% with no instances of a negative drawdown over that period APPENDIX-FINANCIALFORECASTS EXI-IBIT 10: Bermstein NVDA Revenue Model 1. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to Bernstein* cr the “Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Instituticnal Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,C. Bernstein (Indlia) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C, Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and2024 onwercis), Senford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited ≤:t ;限R:公;], Senford C. Bernstein (Cenecla) Limitecl, SenfordSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK (>7 →= } - C · /《^抹式会社). On April 1, 2024. Societe Generale (SG) and AlianceBernstein, L.P, (AB) compleled a tranisaction that created a new joint ventureownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the crestion, prcduction andin which their respective cash equities and research ousinesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectivepublication of reseerchis handled collaboretively on a global basis across the two research brands, "Bernstein' and*Autonomous',Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes af these disclosures, references to Bernstein's 'affiliates" relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliales. VALUATIONMETHODOLOGY NVIDIA Corp at $275. RISK5 NVIDIA Corp Downsicle risks to our price target include potential for lumpiness in near-term business trends, slower than expected revenue RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernslein brand rales stpcks based on forecasls of rela