旅游市场报告2026展望

November 2025 Produced by Research & Intelligence Travel Market Report2026 Outlook Welcome to the latest edition of theTravel Market Report, brought to you byBCD Travel’s Research & Intelligence team. The Research & Intelligence team This quarter’sTravel Market Reportis dedicated entirely to presenting anoutlook for 2026. It includes the following content: Mike EggletonDirector, Research & Intelligence •A review of the prospects for the world economy in 2026, highlighting twinrisks to the outlook and some potential upsides•A focus on some of the key risks travel managers and travelers may have todeal with in 2026, and advice from our Global Crisis Management team onhow best to respond to them •An update on the state of air travel in 2025, our global airfare forecasts for2026 and five trends to watch out for•The outlook for hotel room rates in 2026, starting with a global overviewand followed by the numbers for key markets in Africa and the Middle East,Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America. For some regions,we’ve also included spotlights explaining what’s behind the forecasts incertain markets Natalia TretyakevichSenior Manager, •Our views on car rental, including the factors driving rates in 2026•An outline of seven sustainable travel trends to watch out for in 2026 andhow BCD can help reduce the complexity surrounding them MelinaSibajaTravel Insights Analyst Economicoutlook for2026 Weakest economic expansion since 2009 The global economy disappointed in the first half of 2025, expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5%. However,this wasn’t as bad as had been expected, given the scale of uncertainties and prevailing challenges. As one ofthe biggest underperformers so far in 2025, the U.S. economy has weighed on the global performance, whilemany other economies, including China, India, the Eurozone and the U.K., have performed much as expected.A modest improvement in the second half should result in full year growth of2.8%.1This is much-improved on Trade policy uncertainty to remain Trade policy has exerted a powerful influence on the global economy in 2025. It’s clear that tariffs are higher ona year-over-year basis. But they’ve not risen nearly as fast as official announcements implied. In part, this couldbe an issue of timing: It takes time for tariffs to come into full effect and be collected. And some of the effectscould be avoided by product substitution. Reasons to be encouraged Plenty of uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains. So far, the impact on Canadian and Mexican exports to theU.S. has been smaller than expected, and this should lower the inflationary consequences. But this situationcould easily change, and this is weighing on companies’ confidence about future tariff levels. It’s possible thatsome of the trade deals agreed could break down;in an effort toease competition, U.S. companies couldgradually exert pressure for further tariff increases; and tariffs could still prove to be a useful tool to achieve While uncertainty remains, there are multiple reasons to be encouragedabout the economic outlook: •Household finances remain in a generally good shape. Householddebt as a share of disposable income is very low in the U.S., and it’sfallen in other economies. Savings rates also remain very high in Twin risks to the outlook •U.S investment is benefiting from an artificial intelligence (AI) boom,which has offset some of the adverse tariff impacts and should be Despite the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, in a recentGlobal Risk Survey, Oxford Economics notes a markedeasing in concerns about the downside risks to the world economy presented by trade policy.2This couldsimply reflect a resigned acceptance that higher tariffs are here to stay. Since the shock of April’sLiberationDayannouncement, financial markets have provedfairly resilientto further tariff news. But Oxford Economics •The benefits from falling interest rates will accumulate as we move into2026. Rates have been falling for some time now and we should startto see more of the benefits filtering through to the real economy. •Fiscal policy will soon be more supportive in the U.S. with the prospectof lower taxes. Having previously been the standout risk, a global trade war now shares the mantle with geopolitical tensions,largely relating to the situations in the Middle East, Taiwan and Ukraine/Russia. Inflationoutlook for 2026 Global inflation to ease only slowly Oxford Economics expects global inflation to average3.4%in2025. This represents only a modest slowdownfrom 2024’s 4.5%. But the outlook for 2025 has hardly changed over the last 12 months. For somemonths now, economists have been concerned about the negative and disruptive effects of tradeuncertainty on the global economy. These effects are now beginning to seep through to activity, and they’realso effecting the path of interest rates too. In recent statements from central banks, policymakers have made itclear their concerns about the hig