生命科学年度展望：为淘金热提供“铲子”

EquitiesLifeSciences Selling shovels in a gold rush Developed Markets ◆2026 could be the year of Life Sciences given reasonableexpectation setting and key fundamental drivers including... ◆... biotech fundingrecoveryaided by lower interest rates andFDAbiosimilar draft, andpharma pricing clarity drivingvolumes ◆We upgrade Thermo Fisher to a Buy from Hold;lift TPs for all;ourpreferredplaysfor 2026 are IQVIA, Danaherand Stedim The bull’s viewon 2026:After three years of setbacks, 2026 might herald a promisingera for Life Sciences.We outline three reasons:1) Reasonable expectations set bymanagement teams combined with weak positioning makestherisk-rewardattractiveinthecase of positiveearningssurprises. 2)We expect the anticipated lower interest ratecycle to facilitate a recovery in biotech funding and boost deal flow, thereby driving Sidharth Sahoo*Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedsidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in Rajesh Kumar*Senior GlobalLife Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcrajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com Shubhangi Gupta*, PhDGlobal Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedshubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2143 Where wecouldgo wrong:Weidentify three factors that could impedegrowth: 1) Order dynamics and growth stagnation:The industry has dismissed anyadvance ordering in 2025 due to tariffs. However,we think it is difficult to segregatesuch order patterns. If growth stalls in Q2/Q3 of 2026 due to challengingcomparisons, potentially caused by such advance ordersin 2025,growthin 2026 Yessica Sanchez*Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, GrupoFinanciero HSBCyessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx Yifeng Liu*,PhDGlobal Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcyifeng.liu@hsbc.com Learnings from past year for the year ahead:Life Science Tools companieshaveexperienced another challenging year in terms of share price performance. Despiteaneasing of the difficulties posed by customer destocking and pandemic-relatedstep-downs, the sector's growth fell short of the industry-standard medium-term Morten Herholdt*Global Life Sciences & Healthcare AnalystHSBC Bank plcmorten.herholdt@hsbc.com Akshata Agarwal*AssociateBangalore Risk-reward setup:Our scenarioanalysis (see page 7-8) suggestsanattractiverisk-reward set up. We see upside from both multiple expansion and earningupgrades, butdownside risk of a pull-forward-led earnings miss and a modest de- * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Ratings/ TP updates and top picks:We rollforwardour APV models andmake theadditional risk premium consistent at 25bpacross our coverage.Our TPs increase forall coveredcompanies. We upgrade Thermo Fisher to a Buyfrom Hold. Ourpreferred playsinthe sub-sector for 2026 are IQVIAgiven the strength of leadingindicators (book to bill and RFP flows), Danahergiven solid bioprocessing growth Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications intheDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Key stocks; changes toestimates; HSBCestimatesvs consensus Contents Key stocks; changes to estimates;HSBC estimates vs consensus2 Potential layers of growth upside5 An accelerating growth profile butmind the riskLessons from 2025 Companies Danaher Corp13IQVIA Holding15Lonza17Merck KGaA19Repligen21 Disclosure appendix 41 Disclaimer Potential layers of growth upside ◆Biotech funding recovery,stabilisation in China /academic andgovernment should add layers of growth not in current expectations ◆Our supply chain trackersuggestsLife Science companiesshoulddeliver earning upgrades on recalibrated growth expectations in 2026 ◆Risk-reward setup attractive with upside from multiple expansion andearning upgrades vs downside risk of a pull-forward-led earnings miss Anacceleratinggrowthprofilebut mind the risk This isourthird successive“YearAhead”report where we are calling the upcoming year to bethe year for Life Sciences.While our predictions have missed the mark in the past two years, weidentify key differences in this cycle that bolster ouroptimism yetremain vigilant about potentialpitfalls. Current consensus expectations align with companies that have provided a moremoderate outlook for 2026/27, with anticipated acceleration thereafter. Our confidence is rooted Our preferred picks from the sub-sector are IQVIA, Danaher, and Stedim. We likeIQVIAgiven the strength of the leading indicators, biotech funding pickup and pricingwith large pharma contracts improving as mix gradually shifts towards full-service contracts, We likeDanahergiven the strength of bioprocessing moment