扩大产业转型：难以减排行业与2025年净零进展

Net-Zero Progress in 2025 W H I T EP A P E RD E C E M B E R2 0 2 5 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 1Trends and progress in industrial transformation5 1.1The year in review61.2State of play of the industrial transition91.3Industrial transition dynamics in 202511 2Enabling systems for industrial transformation13 2.1Technology landscape is advancing but uneven142.2Low-carbon demand is growing too slowly152.3Policy is fragmenting172.4Infrastructure is expanding but strained192.5Capital flows are resilient but unevenly distributed20 Strategic priorities23 Appendix24 Contributors27 Endnotes29 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Roberto BoccaHead, Centre for Energyand Materials; Member ofthe Executive Committee,World Economic Forum David RableyManaging Director;Global Energy TransitionLead, Accenture The industrial transition has enteredits decisive period. Four trends characterize this next phase: 1Economic viability: Technologies areavailable, but scale depends on costcompetitiveness, financing models and risksharing. A 5% rise in interest rates can raisewind and solar costs by about 30%. Across hard-to-abate sectors, the technologiesrequired to cut emissions are proven. About halfof industrial emissions can already be abatedwith mature solutions; the rest will depend ondeeper innovation, stronger policy and enablinginfrastructure. The task ahead is rapidly scalingsolutions globally and profitably, ensuring the pathto net zero strengthens industrial competitivenessand economic growth. 2Integration: Synchronized investment in grids,carbon dioxide and hydrogen infrastructure,ports and industrial clusters is essential.Grid spending, about $400 billion annuallytoday, may rise to $483 billion by 2030,yet BloombergNEF (BNEF) estimates $811billion per year will be required for net zero. Scaling the Industrial Transition: Hard-to-Abate Sectors and Net-Zero Progress in 2025,developed by the World Economic Forum incollaboration with Accenture, captures this pivotalmoment. Building on the Net-Zero IndustryTracker framework, it assesses progress acrosseight sectors that together account for nearly40% of global greenhouse gas emissions. 3Accountability: Verified carbon intensity isbecoming central to licensing, financing andtrade. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment(CBAM) and expanding Emissions TradingSystem (ETS) frameworks will cover over45% of regional industrial emissions by 2030. This year’s analysis marks a moment of adjustmentand acceleration: progress is real but uneven. Thenext phase will hinge less on breakthroughs andmore on deploying proven solutions that deliversecurity, competitiveness and sustainability.Clean technologies are advancing, but deploymentis constrained by high costs, policy fragmentationand infrastructure gaps. 4Innovation: Progress depends onlowering the cost of capital, building sharedinfrastructure and aligning global standards.Fewer than 10% of hydrogen projects andunder half of carbon capture, utilization andstorage (CCUS) projects have reached finalinvestment decision (FID). The main barrier isnot technology, but a lack of clear policy andreliable demand. The focus is shifting from “Can we?” to “Canwe deploy at cost and at scale?” under tighteningeconomic, policy and energy constraints. Climatepolicy is moving from voluntary ambition to enforcedaccountability, but unevenly across regions,complicating trade and investment. Artificialintelligence (AI) and digitalization are projected todrive nearly 10% of global electricity growth by2030, forcing industries to secure low-carbon power.Meanwhile, supply chain concentration in criticalminerals has become a key area topic of discussion. The transition is entering a more complexphase marked by regional divergence and systeminterdependence. Success will depend on howeffectively markets, governments and industriesalign across demand, policy, infrastructure and capitalto make proven technologies investable at scale.This paper calls for collective action to scale whatworks today, de-risk the next wave of innovationand deliver competitive, clean industrial systems. Executive summary 2025 marks a defining moment forindustry – where competitivenessand productivity, not technology alone,define sustainable transformation. This past year was a defining moment for theindustrial transition – defined by the realitie