2026年日本房地产市场展望

Outlook2026 JAPANREAL ESTATE REPORT CBRE RESEARCHASIA PACIFIC Contents Macro Environment The Japanese economy is expected to see moderate growth through 2026. Private consumption should remainfirm given government measures to address economic and inflationary issues, while continued accommodativelending conditions are anticipated to lead to an expansion of corporate capital investment. Interest rates areexpected to continue to trend gradually upward. Investment Full-year investment volume for 2025 is set to top JPY 6 trillion, establishing a new single-year record high.Activity should remain robust in 2026, with CBRE projecting investment volumesto reach a level not far from2025’s figure. While interest rate increases have accelerated somewhat, the accommodative stance maintained byfinancial institutions and steadily rising rents should support investors’ appetite for real estate investments. Office Office rents rose across all cities in 2025 on the back of robust leasing activity from tenants whose strongcorporate performance encouraged them to improve office environments or expand floor space. Structural labordeficiencies should ensure that demand remains solid into 2026 and beyond. Vacancy rates continue to hover atextremely low levels in most cities, with any loosening of the supply-demand balance resulting from localizedsupply expected to be limited. Rents are projected to increase in all cities. Logistics The vacancy rate in Greater Tokyo has already begun to fall from its peak in Q1 2025, and is projected to drop tothe 7% range with the sharp decline in new supply in 2027. Greater Osaka is expected to maintain a robust supply-demand balance even after seeing record-breaking new supply. On the back of efforts to achieve logisticsefficiency, tenant demand is spreading from Greater Tokyo to other regions across the country. Retail In Q3 2025, the supply-demand balance in Japan’s retail market remained extremely tight nationwide, with four ofthe nine surveyed high street areas recording vacancy rates of 0.0% and two areas below 1.0%. Rents areprojected to continue rising nationwide on the back of robust retailer demand for storefront space. Gradual economic growth set to continue Japan recorded positive real GDP growth for five consecutive quarters from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025.While real GDP dropped by 1.8% q-o-q in Q3 2025 (first preliminary estimate), private consumptionand corporate capital investment continued to make positive contributions, suggesting that theeconomy is continuing to recover gradually. On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announcedthe implementation of reciprocal tariffs on the U.S.’s trading partners, creating concerns ofeconomic stagnation in both the U.S. and elsewhere. However, progress in trade negotiations andthe removal of some of these tariffs ensured that the U.S. economy remains resilient. In Japan,while increasing tariff costs have exerted downward pressure on earnings for some manufacturingcompanies, corporate performance has been generally strong. This has been due primarily to theavoidance of price hikes in order to mitigate the effects of tariffs, as well as robust performance byAI-related sectors and growth in non-manufacturing industries. The large corporate businessconditions diffusion index in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors has remainedstable and in positive territory (Figure 1-1) . Japan’s GDP growth is projected to remain moderate through 2026 (Figure 1-2). While privateconsumption is somewhat underwhelming as a result of increasing prices, expectations are highthat government measures to address economic and inflationary issues, including support for payrises for small-to-mid-sized companies, tax reductions, and the provision of stimulus payments,should help support consumption. Continued accommodative lending conditions should lead to anexpansion of corporate capital investment, particularly in the areas of labor reduction, AI anddigitization,and supply chain reinforcement.However,should companies see their profitsdepressed by being forced to continue absorbing additional tariff costs, or should uncertaintyaround economic or foreign demand increase further, capital investment may decline. Otherheadwinds include the possibility of a continuation of the current tensions between Japan andChina, which could lead to a drop in inbound demand and a stagnation of exports from Japan toChina. Moderate rate hike seen as most likely scenario Several unforeseen events over the course of 2025 generated unease with regard to Japan’seconomicoutlook,leading to increased volatility in the financial markets.The Trumpadministration’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025 triggered fears of adverse effectson Japanese companies and the economy as a whole, leading to the purchasing of bonds and thebenchmark 10-year government bond yield (long-term interest rates) falling from above 1.5% at theend of March to just over 1.1% on Apri