早晨洞察：2025年12月17日

Morning Insight:December 17, 2025 Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com Yu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Crude Oil:Reduce short positions and wait; in the medium to long term, Last night, both domestic and overseas oil prices fell sharply again,testing the April lows, in line with our previous expectations. From a On the supply side, global supply growth is still likely to remain highin 2026, though the structure of incremental supply is changing. Againstthe backdrop of a decline in rig counts in 2025, U.S. shale oil producershave maintained resilient output through technological upgrades such as overall supply resilience remains intact. Offshore projects in countriessuch as Brazil and Guyana will remain the main sources of incrementalsupply, though the scale of additions will be smaller than in 2025. Therefore, we believe that over the next six months the crude oil marketwill likely remain in a complex environment characterized by intensifiedsupply–demand competition, frequent geopolitical disruptions, and a Zinc:Resonance between domestic and overseas markets, with zinc pricesfluctuating downward. Yesterday, registered warrants at the LME Singaporewarehouse surged sharply, suspected to reflect the release of holdings by drawdowns in the domestic market is also expected to slow, and pricing From a long-cycle perspective, the zinc mining industry is currently atthe tail end of an expansion cycle. Incremental global zinc mine supply differentiated:overseas zinc mine additions are limited, and togetherwith rising production disruptions, a tight balance in zinc concentrate Overall, we believe supply-side constraints will continue to dominateprice dynamics, while the degree of consumption expansion will determinethe upper bound of prices. As the opening year of the“15th Five-Year Open Interest Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES News Highlights: 1. The freight volume of China-Europe freight trains passing through theErenhot Port--the largest land port between China and Mongolia--has The port has handled a total of 3,807 China-Europe freight trains thisyear, transporting 433,600 TEUs of goods, marking year-on-year growth of Hohhot Group Co., Ltd. In 2025, the port added new routes, including routes connecting Wuhu ineast China's Anhui Province with Moscow, Russia, and Datong in north Customs authorities have also taken a series of measures to enhance As the sole transit port for the "middle corridor" of the China-Europefreight train network, Erenhot currently operates 74 routes connecting 2. The wind power installed capacity in north China's Inner MongoliaAutonomous Region had reached 100.33 million kilowatts (kW) as of the end According to the regional energy administration, the total installedcapacity of new energy in Inner Mongolia hit 154 million kW, maintaining From January to November, new energy generation reached 250 billionkilowatt-hours (kWh), a 33-percent year-on-year increase. A total of 87 An estimated 163 billion kWh of new energy was consumed locally,accounting for 32.8 percent of the region's total electricity use. 3. China will impose anti-dumping duties on imports of pork and pig by- The anti-dumping duties, ranging from 4.9 percent to 19.8 percent on EU At the request of the China Animal Agriculture Association, on June 17,2024, the ministry initiated an anti-dumping investigation into pork and The ministry said it conducted the investigation in accordance with lawsand regulations, extensively consulting various stakeholders to fully The ruling shows that the imports of such products from the EU weredumped and caused substantial harm to the domestic industry in China. Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the Company") is qualified to conduct investment consulting The views and information contained in this report are intended solely for the reference of the Company’s professionalinvestors. This report is not intended to target or violate any laws and regulations of any region, country, city, or other legaljurisdiction. Due to the difficulty in restricting access to this report, we apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. If you Analyst Statement The author(s) of this report hold a futures investment consulting qualification granted by the China Futures Association or possessesequivalent professional competence. The author(s) strive to ensure that the report is independent, objective, and fair. This report solely Disclaimer The information in this report is derived from publicly available sources, but the Company does not guarantee the accuracy,cohesiveness, or reliability of such information. The research, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect theCompany'sjudgment as of the date of the report's release. The prices of the underlying futures a