2026: 乐观预期与泡沫担忧：未来融资调查

HSBC Funding the Future Survey: key dataInvestor sentiment is less bullish Investors see more investment and exposure to AI Executive Summary Bullish hopes vs bubblefears The seventh edition of our proprietary Funding the Future Surveyshows investors in both public and private markets are feelingcautiously optimistic heading into 2026. The outlook for venturecapital (VC) activity has moderated a little since October on theback of fearsoverAI investments and fallout from the private creditchallenges in the US, but remains positive. Public investors Carried out by Survation, this survey captures the views of170global investors representing asignificant portion of theprivate and publichigh-growth investment community. Surveyparticipants represented a total AUM of USD1.96trn with37% (about USD725bn) attributed to The fieldwork took place from17 Novemberto5 December2025. The fourth quarter of 2025saw further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a lower level of uncertaintyabout US trade policy thaninthe first half of the year. It was also a rocky period for listed techstocks, with a tech sell-off in November as a narrative about an “AI bubble” appeared to gain Against this backdrop, investor sentiment about the near-term outlook for VC/PE activity hasfallen back a little but remains positive.Some 42% of private market investors foresee anincrease in activity over the next quarter, down from 55% in our previous edition(October 2025). Sentiment about the longer-term outlook has also softened a little, with 55% VC/PE sentiment on the Tech sector seems to have a cooled a little, though, compared withsurveys earlier this year.Healthcare,PURE (Power, Utilities, Resources and Energy) andTTM (Technology, Telecoms and Media) are now the sectors with the most bullishsentiment among private investors.This hints at greater dispersion among managers. By contrast, listed investorsare more positive about the outlookforpublic equity markets.71%of listed investors foresee public equity marketsrisingin Q1 2026. Theyrank Technologymore highly (with the second most bullish sentiment among different sectors, behind only TTM, AI: building not bursting AI investments are still building and not bursting, according to investors. 78%ofinvestorsanticipate a continued increase in AI capex in 2026, however over 80%thinkspending is either …as theythinkspending is notunderutilised yet Investors anticipate AI capex spending tocontinue in 2026… What are your predictions for CAPEX spending in AIover coming six months? (All investors) In your view, is CAPEXspendingon AI being?(All investors) Investors’ responses suggest AI investments within both public and private markets shouldcontinueto grow in 2026. The investments look less like a speculative bubble and more a long- We also asked respondents for their views on: ◆ExitsandIPO Trends: 76% of VC/PE investors are planning to exit one of their portfoliocompanies in the coming year, with trade sales and buyouts remainingthe overall investorfavourite.TheIPO outlook remains positive,with 59%ofprivate investors and 55%oflisted ◆Macro outlook:Changes intheeconomic environment werecited by 73%of private investorsas the biggest headwind for the VC/PE/IPOoutlook, whilethemacroenvironment wascitedby 70% of private investors. We asked all survey participants further questions on US interestrates andthelabour market.61% investorsexpect the Fed to cut rates in the comingquarter, Nine themes:Among the investment themes we track at HSBC Global Research,Disruptive Technology once again topped the poll for survey respondents. Regional trends:Among regional trends, sentiment in private markets ispositive headinginto 2026. Investors in Asia havealsobecome more optimistic about IPO activity in the newyear,with 74% expecting an increase in IPO activity in the coming year. 64% of investors arenow bullish on tech, howevertheynote demand fluctuations as a key risk.Asian private European private investors are also mildly bullish heading into 2026, however less so thanglobal peers. IPO activity is also expected to remain muted as only 33% of investors expectIPO activity to increase. Investors are bullish on Tech, Healthcare and PURE sectors, and Contents Executive Summary Bullish but with room to run6AI investments–still building,not bursting8Sector sentiment breakdown11Headwinds and tailwind forprivate markets18Macro outlook19Exit dynamics20HSBC’s Nine Themes22 Asian investors turn bullish24 Europe remains muted Disclosure appendix Disclaimer33 Bullish but with room to run ◆The mood is cautiously optimistic among private and public investorsin high growth sectors heading into 2026AI, technological change and interest rate cutsremain key tailwinds 2026 outlook Private investorsremainmildly bullish;public investors’ bullish run continues The latest Funding the Future survey suggests investors head into 2026 cautiously optimisticacross both public and private markets. VC/PE in