2026: 乐观预期与泡沫担忧：未来融资调查

Listed investors are bullish on Tech,though private investors’ enthusiasmhas moderated somewhat; both arepositive on Healthcare HSBC Funding the Future Survey: key dataInvestor sentiment is less bullish Investors see more investment and exposure to AI If the downside materialises, how would you change your 2026 AI investments? 16% of Listed investorssuggested they mightdecreaseAIexposure by 50%, over 40% will decrease by 10-25% 25% of VC/PE investorswill likelyreduceAI exposure by 25%,but over half will do nothing How do you foresee IPO activity over the coming year? Executive Summary Bullish hopes vs bubblefears The seventh edition of our proprietary Funding the Future Surveyshows investors in both public and private markets are feelingcautiously optimistic heading into 2026. The outlook for venturecapital (VC) activity has moderated a little since October on theback of fearsoverAI investments and fallout from the private creditchallenges in the US, but remains positive. Public investorsoverwhelmingly expect equity markets to continue therally into thenew year. AI, the pace of technological change, and Fedrate cutsare key tailwinds,while the economic environment and macro risksare seen as the main headwinds. Public investors are very positiveon Tech, while private investors’ enthusiasm has moderated a little–perhaps reflecting fears of an AI bubble. Both public and privateinvestors have a very positive view on Healthcare. Carried out by Survation, this survey captures the views of170global investors representing asignificant portion of theprivate and publichigh-growth investment community. Surveyparticipants represented a total AUM of USD1.96trn with37% (about USD725bn) attributed toVC and private equity (PE) investors. The fieldwork took place from17 Novemberto5 December2025. The fourth quarter of 2025saw further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve and a lower level of uncertaintyabout US trade policy thaninthe first half of the year. It was also a rocky period for listed techstocks, with a tech sell-off in November as a narrative about an “AI bubble” appeared to gaintraction in some parts of the market.Private credit also created a wave of liquidity concerns onthe back of high profile defaults andbankruptcies,notably the auto partsmanufacturerFirstBrands and subprime auto lender Tricolor. Against this backdrop, investor sentiment about the near-term outlook for VC/PE activity hasfallen back a little but remains positive.Some 42% of private market investors foresee anincrease in activity over the next quarter, down from 55% in our previous edition(October 2025). Sentiment about the longer-term outlook has also softened a little, with 55%expecting stronger activity over the next 12 months, down from 74% in October. The economicenvironment and macro risks are seen as the key headwinds toactivity, while the pace oftechnological change remains the key tailwind. VC/PE sentiment on the Tech sector seems to have a cooled a little, though, compared withsurveys earlier this year.Healthcare,PURE (Power, Utilities, Resources and Energy) andTTM (Technology, Telecoms and Media) are now the sectors with the most bullishsentiment among private investors.This hints at greater dispersion among managers.Perhaps the tech sell-off in November or fears of an AI bubble have prompted some decision-makers to consider downside scenarios to AI risks. In this note, we discuss some of these riskscenarios and the environments they could create. By contrast, listed investorsare more positive about the outlookforpublic equity markets.71%of listed investors foresee public equity marketsrisingin Q1 2026. Theyrank Technologymore highly (with the second most bullish sentiment among different sectors, behind only TTM,and have a bullish outlook, with 78% of investors saying they anticipate an increase in techearnings in 2026. AI: building not bursting AI investments are still building and not bursting, according to investors. 78%ofinvestorsanticipate a continued increase in AI capex in 2026, however over 80%thinkspending is eitherutilised about right or over-utilised. Investors anticipate AI capex spending tocontinue in 2026… …as theythinkspending is notunderutilised yet What are your predictions for CAPEX spending in AIover coming six months? (All investors) In your view, is CAPEXspendingon AI being?(All investors) Investors’ responses suggest AI investments within both public and private markets shouldcontinueto grow in 2026. The investments look less like a speculative bubble and more a long-term investment cycle,withproductivityupside and a genuine risk of disappointment if earningsfail to keep up. We also asked respondents for their views on: ExitsandIPO Trends: 76% of VC/PE investors are planning to exit one of their portfoliocompanies in the coming year, with trade sales and buyouts remainingthe overall investorfavourite.TheIPO outlook remains positive,with 59%ofprivate investors and 55%oflistedinvest