TPU如火如荼，AI收入翻倍再翻倍

点评： ➢4Q25业绩超预期，1Q26指引基本符合预期。目标价$460：公司4Q25营收180.15亿美元（环比+12.9%/同比+28%），预期174.6亿美元（此前指引$54bn）。毛利率77.9%，预期77.5%。EPS $1.95，预期$1.88。本季营收中，半导体解决方案收入占$11.1bn同比+35%，其中AI收入占$6.5bn；基础设施软件营收占$6.9b，同比+19%。1Q26指引营收$19bn，预期$18.4bn。AI收入指引$8.2bn，同比翻倍。尽管盘后因市场认为公司未来18个月$73bn的AI订单和毛利率承压导致下跌，我们仍看好博通长期的XPU/交换芯片需求以及维持OPM的能力。我们预计FY26/27年营收为$97/136bn，EPS为$10.2/14.0，对应目标价$460基于33x2027PE。 ➢$73bnAI订单并不低于预期，AI收入明后年翻倍再翻倍：管理层提到未来18个月至少将交付$73bn的积压订单，部分乐观买方预期订单应该超过$80bn。但$73bn平摊到2026年则对应至少$48bn的AI收入，如果明年有加单则很可能超过$50bn（主要包括谷歌TPU $25-30bn/Anthropic购买TPU$21bn/交换芯片$10bn）。另外管理层也认为AI收入很可能在2027年也能实现翻倍达到$100bn左右。 ➢Anthropic机架出货稀释毛利率，但增加毛利润且OPM影响不大：公司3Q25获得Anthropic（博通第四个定制客户）100亿美元的TPU Ironwood机架订单后，4Q25收到了额外的110亿美元订单，计划于2026年底交付。包含XPU和其它关键组件在内的完整机架系统。尽管机架毛利率约40%-50%低于公司整体77%和XPU>60%的毛利率，但毛利润是边际增加的，并且公司对维持现有营运利润率水平表示有信心。 ➢第五个客户并非OpenAI：公司4Q25获得了第五个XPU客户，并收到了10亿美元订单，计划于2026年底交付。管理层表示并非OpenAI因其10GW项目进展至少需要到FY27才开始。市场猜测可能是ARM/MSFT/Apple等。 风险： AI需求低于预期；供应链及地缘政治风险；竞争加剧 分析师介绍 分析师赵方舟，香港大学工商管理学学士（会计与金融）毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括AI GPU/ASIC及AI互联。 该分析师2022-2025年曾任职于海通国际研究部，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌机构，成立于2014年。 邮箱:eugene.zhao@gpf.com.hk电话:(852)6082 5609; (86) 178 9848 1530 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.