金融稳定回顾 2025年11月

Press briefing Financial stability vulnerabilities remain elevated,given uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and tariff impacts Context: A volatile international environment ▪Trade agreements resulted in lower than initially feared tariffs on euro area exports to the United States; ▪Market concerns about stretched public finances could create strains in global bond markets with ▪Sizable and concentrated NBFI holdings of US assets at elevated valuations expose them tohigher-than-normal market risk, amplified by exchange rate risk Liquidity mismatches and procyclical investorbehaviourcan amplify price swings in markets Share of top ten S&P 500 firms in total market capitalisationand net income, and euro area non-banks’ US exposures ▪Additional, sizeable spending needs could weigh on euro area national budgets in the medium term Absorption of bond issuances has remained smooth, yet a shift is taking place towards a more interest rate-sensitive and volatileinvestor base, as demand for long-duration bonds recedes Weak fiscal fundamentals in some countries render them vulnerable to abrupt shifts in market sentiment Cumulative flows into funds investing in European bonds,by maturity ▪Export-oriented sectors under pressure from tariffs, a strong euro and increased foreign competition Shocks affecting them could have wider repercussions, given their size and importance for employment Growing links with non-banks make banks more vulnerable to volatile market conditions, especially a fewlarger banks which could find it hard to source substitute financing in times of stress Euro area bank stock prices, dividend futures and profit Macroprudential policy considerations Close data gaps and reduce data fragmentation to support risk assessment Implement internationally agreed reforms, e.g. for MMFs and NBFI leverage Broaden the macroprudential toolkit and enhance policy coordination at EU level Financial stability vulnerabilities remain elevated,given uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and tariff impacts Special Feature A–Whatsafe havenafter the April US tariff announcement? Implications for euro areafinancial stability Box A–Liquidity of euro area and US sovereign debt markets