美联储分裂的投票预示未来降息面临困境

Fed’s Fractured Vote Signals Trouble Ahead for Future Rate Cuts美联储分裂的投票预⽰未来降息⾯临困境 Trump wants lower rates and a new Fed chair. Wednesday’s divisions suggest one won’t guarantee the other. 特朗普希望降低利率并任命新的美联储主席。周三的分歧表明这两者并不能相互保证。 ByNick Timiraos作者：Nick TimiraosFollow关注Dec. 10, 2025 11:00 pmET东部时间 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔⼏乎没有表示进⼀步降息迫在眉睫。AL DRAGO/彭博社新闻 Jerome Powellpushed through a rate cut Wednesday over the broadest reservations of his nearly eight-year tenure, and in doing so,implicitly delivered a pointed message to PresidentTrumpand his own successor: Cutting rates is harder than it looks. 杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三推⾏了⼀次降息，这是他近⼋年任期中遭到最⼴泛保留意见的⼀次，在此过程中，他含蓄地向特朗普总统和他的继任者传递了⼀个尖锐的信息：降息⽐看起来要困难。 The decision drew three dissents—two from officials who opposed any cut and one from a Trump ally who wanted a larger reduction. 这项决议引发了三项反对意见——其中两项来⾃反对任何降息的官员，⼀项来⾃⽀持更⼤幅度降息的特朗普盟友。 Theformal voteunderstated the resistance. Four other officials registered aquieter objectionin the Fed’s quarterly projections: They wrotedown a higher interest rate for 2025 than the one the committee approved—a signal they wouldn’t have cut. Together with the dissenters,that is roughly a third of the policymakers who attend Fed meetings. 正式投票低估了反对的程度。另有四位官员在美联储季度预测中提出了更温和的反对意见：他们在预测中列出的2025年利率⾼于委员会批准的⽔平——这表明他们不会⽀持降息。加上反对者，⼤约有三分之⼀参加美联储会议的政策制定者持这⼀⽴场。 Trump immediately voiced his displeasure that the cut wasn’t bigger. “I’m looking for somebody that will be honest with interest rates,” hesaid on Wednesday ahead of hisfirst formal interview with a candidate to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May. “Our rate should bemuch lower.”微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 特朗普⽴即对降息幅度不够⼤表⽰不满。他在周三说道："我在寻找⼀个在利率问题上诚实的⼈。"这是他与鲍威尔接班⼈候选⼈的⾸次正式对话前的⾔论，鲍威尔的任期将在5⽉结束。"我们的利率应该低得多。" Powell led his colleagues to cut at the past three meetings, including the one this week, based on two main considerations. First, he judgedthat inflation wasn’t proving to be as big a worry as many feared when Trump announced large tariffincreases this past spring. 鲍威尔在过去三次会议上（包括本周的会议）都领导同事们实现了降息，主要基于两个考虑。⾸先，他判断通胀不会像特朗普去年春天宣布⼤幅提⾼关税时许多⼈所担⼼的那样成为重⼤问题。 Second, while officials have expected job growth to cool gradually this year, that process has been “a touch” cooler than expected recently, he said Wednesday.其次，虽然官员们预期今年就业增长会逐步放缓，但他在周三表⽰，这⼀过程最近"稍微"⽐预期的要冷淡⼀些。 Nevertheless, Powell gave little indication that further cuts were imminent.尽管如此，鲍威尔⼏乎没有表⽰进⼀步降息即将到来。 The Fed’s new projections underscored the challenge. Seven of 19 participants at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meetingthought no rate cuts would be warranted next year, and four saw no more than one—likely far fewer than what the president wants, and apotential conundrum for whoever takes over in May. 美联储的最新预测凸显了这⼀挑战。本周联邦公开市场委员会会议的19名与会者中，有7⼈认为明年不需要降息，4⼈认为最多只需降息⼀次——这可能远低于总统的期望，也是5⽉上任的新主席可能⾯临的难题。 Unless Trump forces major institutional upheaval, that leaves two ways he or a new chair could get lower rates next year: a much weakereconomy or meaningful progress on inflation that might not be visible for months. 除⾮特朗普强制进⾏重⼤机构改⾰，否则他或新主席在明年实现降息只有两条途径：经济⼤幅⾛弱，或通胀取得意义重⼤的进展，但这种进展可能需要数⽉才能显现。微信公众号 404K微信公众号 404K 这种分歧反映出委员会在⼀个根本问题上的分化：不是政策是否处于错误边缘，⽽是会陷⼊哪种错误。 Doves see a softening labor market despite 1.5 percentage points of rate cuts over the past 15 months—now 1.75 with Wednesday’s move.They worry that waiting for proof of weakness will mean acting too late to prevent it. Hawks see a central bank cutting into an economy stronger than it looks, risking a repeat of the “stop and go” mistakes of the 1970s. 鸽派⼈⼠认为，尽管过去15个⽉已降息1.5个百分点——加上周三的降息后为1.75个百分点——劳动⼒市场仍在⾛软。他们担⼼等待疲软迹象出现会意味着⾏动太晚，⽆法防⽌其发⽣。鹰派⼈⼠则认为美联储在经济⽐看起来强劲得多的情况下降息，⾯临重复1970年代"⾛⾛停停"错误的风险。 Federal-funds rate target “Short of a major change in the composition of who sits around the Fed, there’s going to be enormous pushback to rate cuts,” saidDianeSwonk, chief economist at KPMG. "除⾮美联储的⼈员组成发⽣重⼤改变，否则将⾯临巨⼤的减息阻⼒，"毕马威⾸席经济学家黛安·斯沃克表⽰。 The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is led by the chair but includes 11 other members: six other members of the board ofgovernors, who are appointed by presidents from both parties, and the New York Fed president and four of 11 other Fed bank presidents,who take turns voting. Those bank presidents aren’t political appointees. 利率决策联邦公开市场委员会由主席领导，但还包括11名其他成员：美联储理事会的6名其他成员由两党总统任命，纽约联邦储备银⾏⾏长和11家其他联邦储备银⾏中的4家⾏长轮流投票。这些银⾏⾏长不是政治任命者。 The disagreement on display reflects how the Fed was designed, saidRichard Clarida, a former Fed vice chair who served alongside Powelland is now at Pimco. “The FOMC was intentionally set up to have a mix of voting on policy by the reserve bank presidents and the board,” hesaid. “That is very much a feature, not a bug.” 曾与鲍威尔共事、现任太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的美联储前副主席理查德·克拉⾥达表⽰，这种分歧反映了美联储的设计初衷。"联邦公开市场委员会的设⽴本意就是让美联储各地区银⾏⾏长和理事会成员混合参与政策投票，"他说，"这绝对是⼀个特点，⽽不是缺陷。" The Fed’s consensus-driven culture aims to build broad enough support to minimize dissents, but Wednesday’s opposition to a cut wasn’tnecessarily “antagonistic toward the leadership,” saidDavid Mericle, chief U.S