宏观经济深度分析 - AI浪潮：实质与炒作

Cheng Shi,PhD(852) 2683 3231shi.cheng@icbci.com In recent years, shaped by expanding capital expenditures and macro-level liquidity,global capital markets are ushering in a wave of technology investment centered onartificialintelligence(AI).On one hand,a remarkable level of technologyinvestment is reshaping the growth framework - the high capital spending ontechnology research and development has acted as a quasi-fiscal stimulus whiletraditional industries face downward pressure. On the other hand, against thebackdrop of fiscal expansion and expectations of implicit monetary accommodation,market sensitivity to liquidity tightening has declined, with valuation expansiondisplaying classic bubble dynamics. From an asset pricing perspective, the core ofthis phenomenon is not entirely irrational exuberance but rather reflects thestructural characteristics of valuation models in the context of a technologicalrevolution. In a scenario where future profitability is highly uncertain, the marketdoes not price assets based solely on current profit but instead values them byassessing the probability distribution of profit growth—particularly its fat-tailedstructure.The convexity of discount models causes valuation to hinge onlow-probability scenarios of exceptional profitability. However, high valuations donot necessarily signal a bubble; they may also represent rational pricing of potentialnonlinear growth. Although technology assets are characterized by high valuations,high volatility, and strong narrative-driven appeal—posing short-term adjustmentrisks—their pricing structure is closer to an upfront discounting of future leaps inproductivity, rather than a financial bubble destined to burst. Therefore, the crucialpoint lies in identifying whether the technological paths backed by capital cancontinuouslytranslate into verifiable improvements in productivity and thereshaping of profit structure. If the evolutionary path holds, today’s so-called“bubbles” may ultimately be absorbed into the wave of advancement over the courseof history. Dorothy Zhou(852) 2683 3232dorothy.zhou@icbci.com Capital expenditure drives structural growth, while liquidity conditions amplifybubble dynamics.During 2024–2025, global capital markets have witnessed the mostintense wave of technology investment since the internet era. The AI industrial chain,centered on large-scale models, has achieved a historic leap in the capital markets,with the market value of computing infrastructure companies breaking new recordssuccessively, and AI-themed ETFs doubling in scale within just a few months. AI iswidely regarded as a key domain for the next general-purpose technological revolution,poisedto reshape economic operations,industrial organizational structures,andproductivity pathways.On one hand, AI investment is reshaping the structure ofeconomic growth with unprecedented intensity, and the driving effect of thetechnology sector on the economy has assumed a dominant role unlike anythingseen before.AI investments led by large technology companies are expanding at anextraordinary pace. According to data from Stanford University’s Human-Centered AIInstitute, global corporate AI investment reached USD 252.3bn in 2024, with privateinvestment increasing by 44.5% YoY. In the United States, for example, private AIinvestment amounted to USD 109.1bn. Against the backdrop of sustained pressurefrom high interest rates on rate-sensitive industries such as U.S. real estate andmanufacturing, the investment wave—driven primarily by enterprises and centered onadvancedcomputing demand—has effectively acted as a quasi-fiscal stimulus,creating a dual-track economic structure: robust in technology but weak in traditionalsectors. While technology companies continue to invest heavily in capital expenditure,traditional industries still face cost constraints and weak demand.On the other hand,macro-level liquidity conditions are reinforcing the financial attributes of the AIboom, causing valuation expansion to exhibit typical bubble dynamics.Currently,amid widespread fiscal expansion globally, shorter sovereign debt maturity structures, and implicit government reliance on monetary debt accommodation, market sensitivityto liquidity tightening has diminished even as policy rates remain relatively high. Thishas continuously propelled the valuation expansion under a misalignment where highinterest rates do not equate to restrictive financing conditions, further strengthening thefinancial attribute. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the technology and AIsectors, where corporate profit has yet to materialize, but the capital market hasalready priced in future earnings. Investment drives the economy, while liquidityexpansion lifts asset prices, creating a feedback loop reinforcing each other. In anenvironment characterized by both high valuations and ample liquidity, asset priceshave grown much elastic to interest rate changes, and market volatility has taken on amore proc