智能商店与零售便利的未来

Equity ResearchFinancial Services and Technology |Fintech August 15, 2025Industry Report Cristopher Kennedy, CFA+1 312 364 8596ckennedy@williamblair.com Unattended RetailDriving Incremental Growth ofElectronic Payments Marc Feldman, CPA+1 312 364 8397mfeldman@williamblair.com Contents Introduction.......................................................................................................................3Unattended Retail: Large, Growing Market......................................................................4Electronic Payments and Unattended Retail....................................................................8Vending Machines............................................................................................................12New Formats: Micro Markets and Smart Stores.............................................................15Smart Stores.....................................................................................................................18Unattended Retail Providers...........................................................................................19 Introduction We believe Cantaloupe’s pending acquisition by 365 Retail highlights the importance of the grow-ing trend of unattended retail. According to SEC filings, Cantaloupe was in discussions with 36potential acquirers (27 financial, 9 strategic), and received 4 (2 financial, 2 strategic) final propos-als. This report examines unattended retail and highlights some of the key beneficiaries of thisgrowing market. At its core, unattended retail refers to a retail environment where consumers can shop for goodsand complete their purchases without the need for face-to-face interaction. Traditionally, unat-tended retail was associated with low-ticket purchases of goods (e.g., chips/soda) at vending ma-chines; however, improving technology and changing consumer preferences have expanded themarket to higher-ticket items. Further, newer formats (micro markets and smart stores) are quick-ly becoming an important channel for unattended retail. Small-ticket purchases continue to dominate volume at vending machines, but selling higher-ticketfresh food or nonconsumables has been successful in the past and is an emerging trend. Further,formats such as micro markets and smart stores are generating significantly more volume (versusvending) for a variety of reasons (i.e., higher-ticket items, wider selection of products, higher trafficplacements), which we believe will prove sustainable. We estimate that a micro market can gener-ate 4 times the volume per location (versus vending machines), and while early, the average ticketsize in smart stores is $4.25 (versus $2.11 in vending), according to Cantaloupe. The aforementioned trends are evident in the financial results of pure-plays Nayax and Canta-loupe. Nayax’s volume per device grew at a 13.5% compound annual clip from 2019 to 2024, whileCantaloupe grew at a 15.6% rate from fiscal 2021 to 2024. We estimate a vast majority of Nayax’smore than $5.5 billion of payment volume and Cantaloupe’s $3.3 billion is traditional small-ticketunattended goods/services, but the trends should prove sustainable as business mixes evolve. We reiterate our Outperform rating on Nayax, which trades at 17.7 times 2026 EBITDA; includingacquisitions, Nayax is targeting 35% annual revenue growth and a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin,implying about $1 billion of revenue and $300 million of adjusted EBITDA by 2028. We maintainour Market Perform rating of Cantaloupe, which is being acquired by 365 Retail for $945 millionat 11.6 times 2026 EBITDA. We view unattended retail as a compelling yet often underappreciated growth vector for electronicpayments. As we outlined in our report on contactless payments (Tapping Into Small-Ticket Trans-actions: Exploring Contactless Payments), small-ticket transactions remain largely cash-based,and similar to tap-to-pay cards, technology in unattended retail is helping convert small-tickettransactions. Unattended retail should represent a tailwind to the electronic payments ecosystem,including the card networks, merchant acquirers, card issuers, and payment processors. Unattended Retail: Large, Growing Market Unattended retail generally refers to an environment in which consumers can obtain goods with-out the need for face-to-face interaction with an employee—from product selection to purchase.Traditionally, unattended retail has often been associated with small-ticket food and beverage(F&B) vending machines. In recent years, however, the channel is increasingly being leveraged tosell higher-ticket, nontraditional items. Further, the unattended retail category has expanded toinclude more sophisticated formats, such as micro markets and smart stores. Unattended Operators and DistributorsAside from the physical manufacturers of vending machines and fixtures, the key enablers of un- attended retail include hardware, software, and payment vendors (e.g., Nay