尽管存在不确定性，航空业第三季度利润强劲

Airline EconomicState of the Industry: 3Q 2025 Analysis By Tom Stalnaker, Khalid Usman, Grant Alport,Andy Buchanan, and Aaron Taylor A business of Marsh McLennan 1Introduction CONTENTS 2Global overview 3Airline performance by region •North America (US/Canada)•Europe•Latin America•Asia/Pacific•Africa/Middle East/India 4Special topic:US DOT Form 41 Year-End 2024 Analysis 5Appendix WELCOME TO THE NEWAIRLINE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS REPORT Comparison of features What is the Airline Economic Analysis(AEA) and what is changing? •The Airline Economic Analysis is OliverWyman’s report on the financial state of theairline industry •We have published the AEA annuallyfor the past 15 years as a written report,heavily focused on the US sector •We are transitioning to a quarterly releasewith a more global focus and a lighter,more visually driven style •The AEA will continue to include traditional in-depth analyses, including US industry financialdeep dives and global capacity trends •We also will continue to publish featureson emerging trends and their implications forthe industry and its ecosystem We will publish quarterly reports and other updates onoliverwyman.com, so be sure to check back regularly. NOTES ON APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY Results for each region are presented in three sections, using the following approach: FOREW0RDTHIRD QUARTER 2025 INDUSTRY REVIEW Worldwide airline industry economic results In this installment (subscribe here), we reviewthird quarter 2025 results for the airlineindustry worldwide •Worldwide real GDP grew 3.1% year-over-year, with most regional economies growingduring the third quarter compared to thebeginning of 2025 •The airline industry1grew capacity globallyby 3.8%, realized 4.6% revenue growth,and produced an operating margin of 11.3%•Operating costs increased by 1.4% (CASM),much higher than revenue growth of 0.7%(RASM)•As the world experiences economic andtrade uncertainty, we more closely examinerecent trends across markets Operatingmargin 3Q2025For carriers in ourglobal index Q3 year-over-yearFor carriers in ourglobal index Very best,Tom Stalnaker, Khalid Usman, Grant Alport, AndyBuchanan, Aaron Taylor INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEX11% MARGIN ON 4% CAPACITY GROWTH; RASM GROWTH OUTPACED BY CASM GROWTH Airlines in our worldwide index producedan operating margin of 11.3%, down slightlyfrom the third quarter of 2024, though animprovement over second quarter of 2025.Expenses grew slightly faster than revenue,resulting in modestly lower margin •All regions in our index were profitable •Latin America and Europe experiencedincreased margins, while North America andAsia/Pacific experienced declining margins •Europe saw the largest RASM increase,partly impacted by a 4% increase in the USDto EUR exchange rate; Asia/Pacific saw thelargest RASM decrease •Asia/Pacific was the only region withdecreasing CASM and RASM •Latin America led the index with the highestmargins and capacity growth, while NorthAmerica experienced the largest contractionin margin INDUSTRY UNIT ECONOMIC DRIVERS: GLOBAL AIRLINE INDEXASIA/PACIFIC THE ONLY REGION WITH DECREASED CASM – BUT RASM DECREASED MORE Unit revenue (RASM) growthYear-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity Year-over-year growth in %, bubble size denotes capacity MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS: WORLDWIDEREVENUE GROWTH, SLIGHT RISE IN FUEL COSTS, AND POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global GDP grew by 3.1% and airline revenuegrew by 4.6%, while fuel costs increasedslightly •Real GDP grew 3.1% YOY worldwide•Consumer spending and disposable incomeincreased across all regions, with worldwidegrowth of 5.7% in consumer spending–Latin America continued to experience theslowest growth (around 1%) •Q3 saw a 1% increase in jet fuel costs,bringing average cost per gallon to $2.09;this increase contributed to increases inoperating expenses for airlines in all regions GLOBAL OPERATING MARGINS BY AIRLINEGLOBAL MARGIN AT 11%, STRENGTH IN LATAM AND EUROPE, NORTH AMERICA LAGS OTHERS Airline operating margins– Q3 2025 North America Overview of regional trends forUS/Canada INDUSTRY FINANCIAL RESULTS: NORTH AMERICA INDEXCOSTS OUTPACED CAPACITY AND REVENUE GROWTH, CONTRIBUTING TO LOWER PROFITS North American airline profit dropped bynearly 27% (2.2 ppts), as cost growth outpacedrevenue growth •Revenue growth of 2.8% was outpaced bycost growth of 5.2%•Cost growth also outpaced capacity growth,resulting in a CASM increase (+2.5%)•Revenue grew slightly more compared tocapacity, resulting in a RASM increase(+0.2%)•A slight increase in YoY fuel costs since Q32024 contributed to overall cost growth FINANCIAL RESULTS BY BUSINESS MODEL: NORTH AMERICA INDEXFSC MARGIN REMAINED POSITIVE, WHILE VALUE/LCC MARGIN DECLINED FURTHER Full-service carriers continued to post positivemargins, while value carriers’ already negativemargins continued to decline •Operating margin was 6.9% for full-servicecarriers, considerably high compared