2026年亚洲宏观展望

Research Analysts Mind the gap Asia Economics Strong AI demand, a memory supercycle and spillovers from a weak Chinaare driving a North-South divide. Don't paint all of Asia with the same brush. Sonal Varma - NSLsonal.varma@nomura.com Ting Lu - NIHKting.lu@nomura.com 2026, non-tech exports to remain soft, and we see a mixed outlookfor domestic demand. Overall, Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Singapore,Taiwan and India are likely to outperform consensus, while we•expect growth in China, Thailand and the Philippines to disappoint.We expect the strong tech export momentum to sustain through inflation, but we see a North-South monetary policy divide forming,with an extended hold in Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand andAustralia, but 50-75bp of further rate cuts in the South (Thailand,•India, Indonesia and the Philippines).Asia's monetary policy easing cycle is largely complete despite lowslowdown in H1, inflation undershoot in India, twin supercyclesboosting Korea’s growth, a one-year BOJ rate hike pause, highergrowth-core inflation in Singapore, deeper rate cuts in the•Philippines, and deflation in Thailand.Our out-of-consensus calls include a sharp China growthshort SGD/JPY; long NZD/USD; short USD/TWD; pay Mar-5y HK;pay Mar-2y SGD; and an AUD 2s10s flattener. USD may be quitestable into Q1 2026, but we see several potential triggers for aweaker USD. Position for the end of Asia easing cycles and long-•end rates outperformance.Our main FX/rates strategy calls into Q1 2026 are long EUR/INR; Euben Paracuelles - NSLeuben.paracuelles@nomura.com Jeong Woo Park - NSLjeongwoo.park@nomura.com Japan Economics Kyohei Morita - NSCkyohei.morita@nomura.com Global FX Strategy Craig Chan - NSLcraig.chan@nomura.com Albert Leung - NIHKalbert.leung1@nomura.com Andrew Ticehurst - NALandrew.ticehurst@nomura.com Wee Choon Teo - NSLweechoon.teo@nomura.com Nathan Sribalasundaram - NSLnathan.sribalasundaram@nomura.com Contents Forecast summaryExecutive summaryEconomics: The AI supercycle is driving a regional splitOur high-conviction/out-of-consensus callsAsia FX and rates strategyAsia overviewThe AI supercycle is driving a regional splitGrowth: Will demand broaden beyond AI/tech?Inflation: How much will it rebound?Monetary policy: Is the easing cycle over?Our high conviction/out-of-consensus calls:Risks to our viewBox 1: The tech cycle in 2026: Can AI save the day again?Box 2: Transshipment tariff risks remain a threatBox 3: Hedging against America: Asia’s export diversification pushBox 4: The dual impact of AI on jobs: Transformation versus disruptionChina: Navigating the big divideTo predict 2026, know the big divide in 2021-25The mid-year turning points for growth in 2023-25What might Beijing do in 2026?Not yet an escape from deflationThe economy in 2026 by sectorBox 5: The second China shockBox 6: A dive into China’s consumption ratioHong Kong: Returning to trend growthJapan: BOJ terminal rate of 1.25% in 2027, after a one-year pause in 2026Economic outlook: The economy will likely remain on a recovery path into 2027Takaichi's policy: (1) Household support in the near term; (2) raising potential GDP an issue for the longer termInflation outlook: We still expect core CPI inflation to fall below 2% starting in Q1 2026Monetary policy outlook: We expect the BOJ to reach a terminal rate of 1.25% in July 2027Korea: Growth rebootAbove-potential growth supports the BOK being on an extended hold through end-2026Box 7: Growth–inflation surprise cycles and their implications for the BOKBox 8: KRW weakening: Home-grown flow imbalances and policy responsesTaiwan: Above-trend growth supports an extended rate holdAnother year of above-trend growthInflation and monetary policyPolitical eventsRisks to our viewBox 9: The curious case of weak private consumptionIndia: Goldilocks conditions are set to sustainImproving growth prospects in 2026Two years of below-target inflationPolicy easing is not over455556667778910111213131416171819202325252626272828303133333334343536363637 From deficit to debt targettingAn improving external sector outlookRisks to our viewBox 10: Lessons from past pay commissionsBox 11: Is India’s disinflation just cyclical or also structural?Box 12: Fiscal deficit in times of debt targetingBox 13: New year, new data series – CPI, GDP and IIPTwo ASEANs in 2026Regional overviewBox 14: ASEAN’s poor track record in increasing intraregional tradeIndonesia: The long road to rebalancingMalaysia: In the zoneBox 15: Early signs of progress in the Johor-Singapore Special Economic ZonePhilippines: A costly corruption crackdownBox 16: ASEAN – Asymmetry in policy transmission and central bank predictabilitySingapore: Starting to run hotThailand: Renewed risk of political gridlockAustralia: Steady as she goes2025 in reviewThe growth outlookBox 17: The US-Australian Rare Earths and Critical Mineral dealA tricky labour market, and last-mile inflation challengesRBA: Studying furiously, doing littleForecasts and risksNew Zealand: Looking up