德意志银行《2026年亚洲宏观透视》：一年的上涨-118993130

Asia Macro Insight 2026: A Year of Upkeeping China's growth slowdown will be limited to 4.5% in 2026, despite 'anti-involution"policy, amid infrastructure investment recovery. Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909 Hong Kong will sustain recovery momentum with 3.0% growth, supported byrecovery in the financial and property sectors. Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139 India's growth is likely to remain resilient at 6.4%, as consumption and publicinvestment remain supportive. Indonesia's growth will remain steady at 5%, with public demand rising faster. Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699 Malaysia'sgrowth is likely to moderate slightly to 4.5%,despite strongerinvestment as consumption slows. Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 The Philippines is expected to see a modest growth recovery to 5.1%, as privatedemand makes up for softer public spending. Earnings from tourism will remain a key support for Sri Lanka's 4% growth. Overview ………………………….….....…..2China…........................................................4Hong Kong…...............................................8India….......................................................10Indonesia…...............................................14Malaysia…................................................16Philippines….............................................18Singapore…..............................................19South Korea..............................................21Sri Lanka…...............................................23Taiwan……...............................................25Thailand….................................................27Vietnam….................................................29DB Macro Forecasts.................................31Growth & Inflation Heatmap……............33EM Asia Macro Charts….........................34EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor….......36 Singapore's growth is likely to normalize to 2.4%, despite stronger investment, asconsumption moderates. South Korea's growth will rebound to 2%, as domestic demand normalizes. Taiwan's growth will remain robust at 4.8%, amid a AI-related investment boom. Thailand seeks tourism recovery as growth is likely to slow to 1.5% amid macropolicy limits. Vietnam's growth to remain strongest in the region at 7.7%, amid sustainedstrength in investment. While a broadening of tech capital investments presents upside risks, geopoliticalrisks linger, despite the US-CN truce. Although policies are expected to be growth-supportive, they face limits, amid a more mixed FX outlook. There are also election-related risks to consider for South Korea, Thailand, and the US. Overview Asia's growth in 2025 is set to exceed expectations, reaching 5.3% (up from 5.2%in 2024), driven by a robust export sector, despite tariff shocks. This resilience stemsfrom not only trade rerouting and supply chain adjustments that successfullynavigated around tariff-induced shocks but also a AI investment boom. Asia'sgrowth momentum, though softer in Q3 2025, demonstrated remarkable resiliencethat will continue into 2026. Q1 2026 is anticipated to mark the trough of this softpatch, leading to a modest but sustained recovery thereafter. Juliana Lee Ironically, as tariff uncertainties recedes, Asia's GDP growth is likely to moderate by0.5 percentage points to 4.8% in 2026, led by worsening net trade contribution togrowth. Despite its "anti-involution" policy, a recovery in infrastructure investmentwill limit China's growth moderation to 4.5%. Public investment will remain a keysupport for India and Vietnam also, with the latter's growth likely to outpace that ofits peers again in 2026. While ASEAN's economic landscape will be characterizedby diverging growth rates and drivers, South Korea and Taiwan's growth will remainanchored by a AI investment boom. 22 November 2025Asia Macro Insight A broadening of tech capital investments presents a significant upside risk, thoughits immediate benefits are likely to be concentrated, exacerbating industrialdivergence. Conversely, a sudden downturn in AI investment could triggerwidespread pain amid sharp increase in global risk aversion against risk assets andweighing on general growth. Despite easing US-China trade tensions, rising geopolitical tensions between thosemajor powers and other nations remain a significant source of concern, asillustrated by the recent rising tensions between China and Japan. Such dynamicsand China's assertive industrial policies may prompt other nations to further theirefforts to address asymmetric reliance and supply chain resilience. At the sametime, a drive for supply chain diversification has created new opportunities for otherAsian economies, although not yet proving to be resilient against shocks from thegreat power rivalry. Away from geopolitics, the region's economic landscape is characterized by asharp dichotomy between industries benefiting from AI-driven demand and thosestill grappling with lingering consumer and indu