全球投资组合经理摘要：预算紧缩

Budget Crunch We provide context and perspective on research acrossregions and asset classes, this week providing our thoughtson the UK Budget; we review 3Q earnings season in the USand set the stage for YE; and we provide our 2026 outlook forEuropean interest rates. Equity Product Management Group Terence Malone*+ 1 212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, US Rob Bate*+44 (0)20 7773 3576rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays, UK •UK Autumn Budget:The chancellor delivered a budget that increased spending in each yearof this parliament, but was more thanoffsetwith backloaded tax increases, focused onfreezing income tax thresholds, applying NIC to salary sacrificed pension contributions and arange of smaller tax measures. While the extent of headroom against the fiscal rules is largerthan we had expected, the backloaded nature of tax increases raises questions aboutdeliverability, in our view. From a rates perspective, we note that the pivot to heavier shortsupply is now showing up as material rises in gilt redemptions in the forecast period. Themedium-term fiscal picture remains unclear, clouded by both rising redemptions andoptimistic revenue assumptions. Pertaining to the pound, the budget generates scope for an,at least partial, unwind of its risk premium, in our view. And lastly on the equity markets,while sector-wise implications have been mixed, we believe a worst-case scenario has beenavoided in most cases with not many unexpected surprises. FICC Product Management GroupJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US •Learnings from 3Q Earnings:EPS growth in 3Q was strong at +15.2%, sales growth improvedQ/Q to +6.8%, and breadth and depth of surprise once again came in above the LT trend. BigTech EPS growth in particular accelerated to 32% from 28% last quarter, but SPX ex-Tech alsodelivered 9% Y/Y growth thanks to Financials, Materials and Industrials. Looking ahead,consensus FY25 ticked higher to $275, matching our estimate, while YTD revisions to 1H26estimates are running significantly worse than average for manytariff-impactedindustries,and better than average for industries levered to data center investment, ashyperscaler capex guidance increases to $540B+ for 2026. As for valuation, SPX NTM P/E hasdipped below 22x, as "animal spirits" have faded somewhat in response to AI capex/financing Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 22.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 22.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 23.Completed: 28-Nov-25, 23:16 GMTReleased: 30-Nov-25, 14:00 GMTRestricted - External concerns and doubts over a December Fed cut. Meanwhile, revisions keep moving higher,which we think frames attractive entry points for Big Tech, Financials and Utilities. Valuationsfor the rest of the TMT complex are extended, but we like the secular growth story. •2026 European Interest Rates Outlook:As we look ahead to 2026, in the front end, withspot and projected euro area inflation close to 2%, a more resilient-than expected economyand a very robust labour market, the ECB's "good place" message should leave the EUR front-end relatively well anchored. Regarding intermediate duration, we see Bunds in a tight range,and in Gilts, cross-market cheapness is unlikely to dissipate. With respect to the curve,steepeners have been very successful in 2025. We expect the steepening momentum tocontinue in EUR but with the onus largely on long-end forwards to cheapen as the front-endlikely has limited room to rally. In EGBs, the tailwinds for continued core-peripherycompression still exist but are weaker at the margin as the domestic policy easing cycle islikely over. But we see pockets of value in the periphery, especially for sovereigns with robustgrowth