2026年全球信用展望：旋律未停，杂音渐起

MusicPlaying,Noise Rising Dec. 3, 2025 Foreword Dear reader, As we stepinto2026, the chorus of voices warning of animpending creditdownturnis getting louder.Andyet, we seeanumberof factorsthatpointtoamore balanced--dare wesay,resilient--pictureahead. This includes resilienteconomies, extendedmaturities forissuers, andimprovedinterestrates.This dissonance is understandable givenhowaccelerating structural trends--whethergeopolitical,demographic, environmental, ortechnological--areincreasinglyobfuscating the messages frommoretraditional cyclical factors. Acknowledgements Weappreciateour manycolleagueswhohavecontributedtothisreportand provided youwith S&PGlobalRatings'essentialintelligence. SpecialthankstoJoeMaguire,Fatima Tomas,Tom Lowenstein,Paul Whitfield,Devon Reilly,RaeNudson,KelliannDelegro,Emma Davis,AllieBower,VickieScullard,Cindy Fonseca,RachelLipman,EliseBell,andMichelleJames. The rise of AIitself is sending outmixedmessages. Inthe short-term, the substantial investments intodatacenters andtherelatedinfrastructure are boosting growth, notablyinthe U.S. butalsoacrossotherregions. While productivitygains couldyielddurable economic benefits overtime andalleviatesomeof the effects of global aging, the risks of labordisplacementandneedforreskilling are real. Atthe same time, the rapidscale of AIfundraising, andvaluations attainedbyplayers, have sparkedconcerns of possiblehubris orthe emergenceof newrisks, withthe ultimate transformational natureof AI’s outcomes still anyone’s guess. Against this backdrop, broader policy uncertainty representsa key risk tothe outlook and a potentialtriggerformarketvolatility. Trade tensions mayhave peakedandmarkets have absorbedthem, atleastfornow. Buttheyare symptomatic of along-termshifttoward a moretransactional andmultipolarworldorderwhichwill have longertermcreditimplications. S&PGlobal Ratings’Global CreditOutlook2026brings togetherourperspective onwhere creditisheadedacross regions andsectors,looks intorating trends anddefaultprojections, andaddresses 10questionsthatwe believe will shape 2026.Itbuilds onthe collective insights fromourregional andglobal CreditConditions Committees (CCCs),whichmeetquarterlytoreviewconditions inAsia-Pacific,emerging markets, Europe, andNorthAmerica, cascading intoourglobal coverage. Atthe CCCs, we evaluate the trends affectingeconomies, industries, andcreditmarkets--toidentifyour base-case assumptions andrankthe exogenous risks thatinformthe creditrating deliberations ofour1,700 analysts globallyacross assetclasses. Amiduncertainty, ouranalysts seektogobeyondthebase case tounderstandthe sensitivities of creditratings tothe potentialunfolding of risks. Inanenvironmentwhere distinguishing the music fromthe noise is increasinglychallenging, we hopethis publicationwill offervaluable guidance asyouchartyourcourse throughthe evolvingcreditcycleandintersectingstructuraltrends.Thankyoufor joininguson thisjourney—we lookforward toengaging withyouas the yearunfolds. Alexandre Birry Alexandra Dimitrijevic Gregg Lemos-Stein GlobalHeadofCreditResearchandInsightsCo-Chair,Global CCCParisalexandre.birry@spglobal.com ChiefAnalytical Officer,CorporateRatingsCo-Chair,Global CCCNewYorkgregg.lemos-stein@spglobal.com Global HeadofAnalyticalResearchandDevelopmentCo-Chair, S&PGlobalLookForwardCouncilLondonalexandra.dimitrijevic@spglobal.com Contents Global CreditOutlook 2026:Music Playing,NoiseRising4Top Global Risks14GlobalEconomicOutlook15QuestionsThat Matter18192225283134374043Rates|Can FinancingConditionsRemain Supportive?Trade|Are Global SupplyChains BecomingABargaining ChipForStrategic Influence?Geopolitics|WhatAre The CreditImplications Of The Emerging Global Order?The State OfThe Consumer|Will Cracks WorsenForEconomic Giants ChinaAndThe U.S.?RefinancingRisk|WhatIfTheWindChanges?Data Centers|Are The Winning Odds LessCertainIn2026?Private Markets|How Will Fund Finance Shape Private Credit?EmergingMarkets|WillThePositiveMomentum Continue?PhysicalClimate Risks|WhatCan WeExpectAs The NeedToAdaptAndBuildResilience Rises?Stablecoins,FinancialStability,AndTreasuries|What’s NextForMoneyAndSafe Assets?46RegionalCredit Conditions49North America50Europe52Asia-Pacific54EmergingMarkets56Contacts58Disclaimer59 Global Credit Outlook 2026 Music Playing,Noise Rising The sustained period of resilient global credit conditions looks set to continue in 2026, aseconomic growth holds up, supported in part by tech investments. Also, active refinancing in2025 has pushed out maturities for many, rates have decreased or are still doing so, and investorappetite remains healthy. Contacts Alexandre BirryParisalexandre.birry@spglobal.com This outlook is not uniform though. Performance across sectors and geographies will diverge, andthe evolving geopolitical order may continue to introduce unexpected policy shifts. And asassumptions about AI’s transformative power increasingly drive market valuations andinvestment volumes, creating a boom in data center cons