铸造厂——人工智能驱动超级周期重塑市场动态

Foundry–AI-driven super cycle reshapes Theglobal foundry industry has shifted decisively from a cyclical,inventory-driven model to a structural,AI-powered super cycle.AI demandnow serves as the dominant growth engine, against a backdrop of supportiveinventory normalization.We forecast the pure play foundry market to reach~US$171bn in 2025, a 25.6% increaseYoY, with sustained growth driven by: China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Revenueof the pure play foundry market is expected to remainelevated in 4Q25, in our view.The market reached US$136bn in 2024(+16.3% YoY),and is acceleratingsignificantly. In 2025, the sector hasdeliveredstrong double-digit year-over-year growth in the first threequarters, fueled by surging AI-related demand and seasonal pre-holidayinventory builds. We expect4Q25revenue to remain elevated near3Q Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Related reports: 1.Semiconductors-Nvidia: Solid 3Qresults;4Qguidanceshouldalleviate AI bubble concerns (link)2.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: 1H25 AIdemandcheck;Compute demandcontinues to grow (link)3.Semiconductors-Solid 2Q resultsforBroadcom;eyesonthedevelopment of AI inference (link)4.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s 1Q beatand solid 2Q guidance confirm AIdemand remains resilient (link)5.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: China’shyperscalersaccelerate AI infra.buildoutamid strengthening clouddemand (link)6.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: Resilient1Q25capex among hyperscalers(link) Geopoliticalfragmentationisacceleratingsupplychainreconfiguration,as major economies invest heavily in domestic While global wafer shipments have recovered steadily (+14% YoY in9M25), ASP trends reveal a stark divergence.TSMC’s blended ASP rose15% YoY in3Q25, propelled by itsAI-driventechnology mix—a momentumwe expect to continue amidtight supply. In contrast, ASP recovery forfoundriesless exposed to AI remains subdued,as players prioritizeutilization over pricing amid tepid non-AI demand—a dynamic delaying Competitive concentration around TSMC is pronounced(71% share in2Q25, up from 63% in1Q24), a trend likely to deepen under the “Foundry2.0”paradigm integrating full stack manufacturing.Other leadingfoundries face share pressure,althoughSMIC(981 HK, NR)and HuaHong(1347 HK, Hold)remain key beneficiaries of China’s supply chain While we maintain a positivelong-termviewforHua Hong’s strategicposition and capacity expansion, currentvaluation appearsto fairlyreflectnear-termprospects.We therefore maintain our Hold rating with atarget price of HK$68.Upside catalysts: stronger-than-expected demand or Pure-playfoundrysector: AI-drivensuper cycleredefines Foundries in the AIage:ridingonthestructuralsuper cycle The global foundry industry has shifted from a cyclical inventory-driven model to astructural, AI-poweredsuper cycle.While gradual inventory normalization provides asupportive backdrop, AI demand is now the dominant growth engine. The market reached In 2025, the sector has delivered strong double-digit year-over-year growthinthefirst three quarters, fueled by surging AI-related demand and seasonal pre-holidayinventorybuilds.We expect 4Q25 revenue to remain elevated near 3Q levels(approximately US$46bn), consistent with TSMC’s4Qguidance of roughly-1%QoQat themidpoint.For fullyearof2025, we forecast the pure-play foundry market to grow 25.6% Source:Counterpoint,CMBIGM estimates Source:Counterpoint,CMBIGM estimates This expansion is increasingly concentrated in AI and driven by leading-edgetechnology.TSMC’s revenue mix illustrates this shift: its High-Performance Computing(HPC) segment contribution rose from 42% in3Q23to 51% in3Q24,and further expandedto 60% in3Q25. Concurrently, the migration to advanced nodes is a primary driver ofindustry value expansion, alongsidethe increase inwafer shipment. By 2025, sub-7nm Source:Counterpoint, CMBIGM Source:Counterpoint,CMBIGM estimates Geopoliticalfragmentation is concurrently driving a global reconfiguration ofsemiconductorsupply chains,as major economies prioritize de-risking throughsubstantialdomestic fabrication investments.In China,the push for supply chainlocalization is accelerating technological advancement and import substitution, with SMIC Source:Gov.uk, US DoC, SIA, SEMI, Reuters, Bloomberg, CMBIGM ASPdivergencehighlightsbifurcatedmarketdynamics A steady recovery in global wafer shipments has been underway since early 2024,with aggregated major foundry shipments growing 10% YoY in 2024 and 14% YoY in 9M25.This improvement has been supported not only by inventory normalization but also by Source:Company info, CMBIGMestimates However, ASP trends reveal a stark divergence between AI-driven and non-AIfoundry businesses.TSMC’s blended ASP grew 15% YoY in3Q25, largely drivenby itsadvancing technology mix which ispropelled by AI, as its HPC revenue share rose fro