泰国2025年度咨询报告

Thailand – 2025 Acknowledgments 1.This Annual Consultation Report on Thailand has been prepared in accordance withthe functions of AMRO to monitor and assess the macroeconomic status andfinancial soundness of its members; identify relevant risks and vulnerabilities; reportthese to member authorities; and if requested, assist them in mitigating these risks 2.This Report is drafted on the basis of the Annual Consultation Visit of AMRO toThailand from August 18 to August 29, 2025 (Article 5 (b) of the AMRO Agreement).The AMRO Mission team was led by Allen Ng (Group Head and Mission Chief) andjoinedby Haobin Wang(Desk Economist),Benyaporn Chantana(Back-upEconomist),Ravisara Hataiseree(Fiscal Specialist),Xianguo Huang(SeniorEconomist) and Yuhong Wu (Research Analyst). AMRO Director Mr. YasutoWatanabe and Chief Economist Dr. Dong He participated in key policy meetings 3.The analysis in this Report is based on information available up to November 17, 4.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographicalarea, or by using the term “member” or “country” in this Report, AMRO does not 5.On behalf of AMRO, the Mission team wishes to thank the Thai authorities for theircomments on this Report, as well as their excellent meeting arrangements and Disclaimer:The findings, interpretations and conclusion expressed in this Report representthe views of the staff of ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) and are notnecessarily those of its members. Neither AMRO nor its members shall be held responsible Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................1Table of Contents .....................................................................................................................2Executive Summary..................................................................................................................3 A.Recent Developments and Outlook ...............................................................................6 A.1 Real Sector Development and Outlook........................................................................... 6A.2 External Sector................................................................................................................ 8A.3 Fiscal Sector.................................................................................................................. 10 B.Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Challenges ........................................................................13 B.1 Short-term Risks............................................................................................................ 13B.2 Medium- to Long-term risks .......................................................................................... 14 C.Policy Discussion and Recommendations .................................................................16 Box A. Revamping of the credit guarantee scheme ............................................................ 18Box B. Thailand’s Capital Expenditure Disbursement Delay – An Assessment ................. 22 Appendices .............................................................................................................................29 Appendix 1. Selected Figures for Major Economic Indicators............................................. 29Appendix 2. Selected Economic Indicators for Thailand ..................................................... 33Appendix 3. Medium-term Projections for Key Economic Indicators .................................. 34 Annexes: Selected Issues .....................................................................................................42 1. Monetary Policy under High Uncertainty: A Scenario-Based Approach for Thailand ..... 422. Debt Sustainability Analysis ............................................................................................ 50 Executive Summary 1.Recent growth in the Thai economy remained subdued,weighed down byweaknessin domestic demand.GDP grew by 2.5 percent in 2024,as privateconsumption slowed sharply and private investment contracted amid sluggish incomegrowthand fragile sentiment.These trends persisted into 2025,with privateconsumption rising by 2.6 percent in the first three quarters, down from nearly 7 percent 2.However, some positive developments are emerging. After contracting for severalconsecutive quarters, private investment rebounded in Q2 and Q3 2025 amid a surgein foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments. Increasing investments in high-valuesectors—includingelectric vehicles(EVs),electronics,and data centers—offerpathways to more resilient growth. Overall, Thailand’s GDP grew by 2.4 percent in the 3.Looking ahead, growth is projected to moderate in the near term but improve inthe medium term. Growth is projected to slow to 2.2 percent for the year and 1.9percent in 2026, reflecting the unwinding of front-loaded exports and persisten