2026年黄金展望：前进还是后退

Contents Wildcards Conclusion Push ahead or pull back Gold has experienced a remarkable 2025, achieving over 50 all-time highs andreturning over 60%.1This performance has been supported by a combination ofheightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and positive Looking to 2026, the outlook is shaped by ongoing geoeconomic uncertainty. The goldprice broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus expectations and may remainrangebound if current conditions persist. However, taking cues from this year, 2026will likely continue to surprise. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, Additional factors, such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends, could alsoinfluence the market. Most importantly, gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier and source Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) –summarised inChart3andTable1– indicates thatthehigh-risk environment explains roughly 12percentage pointsof gold’s y-t-d return, primarily Gold’s impressive surge After setting more than 50 all-time highs and edgingover 60% by the end of November, gold has emerged Within the two factors above, the combined effect ofheightened geopolitical risk and US dollar weaknessaccounted for roughly 16 percentage points. Thisunderscores the outsized influence of politics and This historic rally, gearing up to be gold’s fourthstrongest annual return since 1971,2has been driven At a macro level, two stand out: •A supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic Further,price momentum and investor positioningcontributed nine percentage points, whileeconomic •Generalised US dollar weakness and marginally This environment has resulted in a broader push forportfolio diversification amid lacklustre bond returns Against this backdrop and further supported by gold’spositive momentum,investment demand has surged At the same time,central banks continued their buyingspree– with demand well above average, even if below Notably, the contributions of the four main factors thatdrive gold have been unusually balanced this year(Table1). This signals a market driven by diverseforces rather than a single catalyst. Having said that, What does this mean for gold? Much like this year,unforeseen events – such as Liberation Day – areimpossible to anticipate. Still, while their exact nature Table1:Gold was driven in almost equal measureby its four key drivers is unpredictable, the frequency of tail risk events is onthe rise(Chart4).3Whether such developments What macro consensus tells us Thegold price today largely reflects macroconsensus expectationsrelated to economic growth,inflation, and monetary policy. This is captured by the rangebound performanceshown by ourGold Valuation Frameworkwhen weinput market consensus variables(Table2,p9). •Global GDP growth remains stable and broadly inline with trend (2.7% – 2.8% y/y in real terms) •Around 75bps of additional rate cuts from the Fed,and a core CPI/PCE fall of roughly 40–60 bps by What to expect in 2026 •The US dollar edges higher, and yields stay broadly Looking ahead to 2026, markets are largely pricing in acontinuation of the status quo, but divergences inmacro data laden with a heavy geoeconomic blanket,mean that uncertainty will remain high. Concernsabout a softening US labour market are mounting, But, as history shows, the macroeconomy rarelyfollows the path that market consensus dictates. As such, we analyse the conditions that would pushgold moderately higher (a shallow slip), significantly 4.Consensus macro data provided by Oxford Economics. A shallow slip US economic data has been mixed, but marketparticipants are concerned that momentum may be US dollar REER and US10-year TIP yield* Within this environment, a potential reset in AIexpectations could act as an additional drag on equitymarkets, especially since AI names carry significantweight in major indices, amplifying market volatility This may result in a softer US labour market as record-high margins contract, which would prompt weakerconsumer activity and contribute to a broader global Against this backdrop, the Fed would likely cut ratesbeyond current expectations, easing policy in Impact on gold: moderately bullish The combination of lower interest rates and a weakerdollar paired with heightened risk aversion would The doom loop There is a non-zero chance that the global economymoves into a deeper and more synchronisedslowdown,8driven by rising geopolitical andgeoeconomic risk. Tensions around trade, unresolvedregional conflicts, or a new flashpoint may erode Our analysis shows that, in this environment,goldcould rise 5%–15% in 2026from current levels,5depending on the severity of the economic slowdown, This would represent a solid return in a normal year,but following 2025’s strong performance, it would still The combination of lower interest rates and a weakerdollar – both of which remain cyclically high(Chart5)– As confidence fades, businesses scale back investmenta