德意志银行主题研究月刊创意——后英伟达时代，又一次。..-118964964

November 2025 Luke Templeman | Galina Pozdnyakova Return chasing is running out of steam Daily price moves in US stocks have been increasingly detached from other USassets recently US stocks have been propelled by return chasing in recent months. This hasbeen especially pronounced in tech and cyclicals–the three sectors that havebeen down the most in Q1 are now the best performers since then. Volatility across markets has been low not only in absolute terms but alsorelative to measures of economic uncertainty US assets have also been more resilient to increases in yields and largely insensitive toeconomic data, partly explaining the rally despite US government shut down. Sothe “easy” catch-up ride from April lows is likely over. The strong momentumincreasingly favours credit. Global stocks and commodities are now also more exposed toUS equities, making credit relatively better positioned to weather a potential further Earnings season shows value outside mega caps A strong and broad-based earnings season helped support equities recently.Based on where Q4 expectations are, earnings may once again lift stocks at the More notably, beats have been especially pronounced for the equal-weightedS&P 500 which trades at much more reasonable multiples. Stocks outside the Mag-7 may also boost payouts and have been less exposedto the AI capex story. The median US stock also continues to deliver the highest margins outsidepost-covid era and has seen its asset turnover improve over recent quarters. This comes amid a recovery in sentiment around uncertainty and the health ofthe US economy by businesses. Private credit concerns The jitters around private credit have few immediate, severe implications forthe industry and had little durable passthrough to credit spreads, bank shares BDC discounts have already been widening sinceQ2but those vehicles tend tohold safer investments and prices have rebounded recently. Zooming out, the share of cash-burning firms in US markets has been fallingincluding in the frothier corners. Moreover, riskier credits keep being refinanced and both costs and investordemand remain favourable relative to the last few years. It is a similar story for investment grade debt with large caps also enjoyinglower borrowing costs in Europe. Moreover, leverage of blue chip stocks has Broader credit conditions including bank lending also remain accommodative. China: has the negative sentiment unwound? Chinese equity indices have been among the best performers among largestock markets this year. Chinese equities now also have relatively better value and momentum thanmany DM markets. As economic data continues to be weak, a turn in momentum is likely to furtherboost local assets. So far, a more potent force has been the falling tensions between US andChina that is likely to continue propagate through the global economy. There are also signs that easing tensions are yet to unleash a buying waveamong foreign investors. More recently, the rise in the Hang Seng has decoupled from mainland buying,cooling concerns about market overheating. Both the CSI 300 and the Hang Seng continue to have some of the largest discounts from ATHs relative to other big stock markets. Moreover, the Hang Seng tech sectorpacked with key Chinese AI firms continues to trade at relatively low multiples. Appendix 1Important Disclosures *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Aside Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Luke Templeman, Galina Pozdnyakova. AdditionalInformation TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,