德意志银行主题研究5月科技绩效评估-持续多久。。。

May tech performance review–How long can the rally last? June 2025Marion Laboure,Ph.D/marion.laboure@db.comCamilla Siazon,camilla.siazon@db.com May tech performance review–A temporary reprieve for tech InMay,US tech equities began to outperform theirEuropeancounterparts,supported by a sharp tariffreduction.The Nasdaq 100 tech(+8.8%)surpassed theSTOXX600 tech(+7.8%)for the first time this year.PresidentTrump’s$2trn worth of US-Middle Easteconomicdeals also boosted US tech stocks,withcompanieslike Google,Salesforce and AMD pledging$80bninvestmentacrosstheUSandSaudiArabia. Globaltech equities broadly posted positive returns,reboundingafter a weak performance in prior months.WhiletheUS-ChinadétenteonMay12triggeredasharprally,tech stocks had already started recovering inlateAprilamid improved sentiment around trade.TheMagnificent7 rose+13.4%,the best month since May2023.Incontrast,Chinesetechunderperformed,weigheddownbyongoingUSexportcontrolsonsemiconductorsandhardware. However,policy uncertainty remains high.Trump hasallegedthatChinahas violateditsagreementwiththeUSandunleashed a new round ofchip exportbans.A UScourtruling blocking sweeping tariffs offered temporaryreliefbutcouldsignalavolatileJune. Inshort,May was a strong month for tech,but thedurabilityoftherallyremainsinquestion.Asbefore,Mag7performancewilllikelyserveasabarometerforbroaderrisksentiment. ForourApriltechperformancereview,seehere. Sources: WSJ, Bloomberg Finance LP, FT, Reuters, BBC, Associated Press. SUMMARY of May tech performance Macro Market impact ❑Major equity indices had largely retraced their movessince Liberation Day, with recent tariff developmentshaving limited immediate market impact. ❑The end of May reintroduced uncertainty to the tradenarrative. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on the EU(later delayed by five weeks), a US court blocked most ofTrump’s Liberation Day tariffs—only for another court tolater allow them, pending review. Trump also pledged todouble steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% and is exploringalternative enforcement tools. ❑Tech stocks had already started rebounding ahead ofthe China–US détente, supported by improving macrosignals and de-escalation hopes. ❑In the near term, US equities may continue tooutperform Europe, although renewed uncertainty maydisproportionately weigh on US corporates. ❑Earlier in the month, markets had welcomed tariff relief,particularly the temporary détente between the US andChina, with both sides cutting tariffs (to 30% and 10%,respectively). The UK–US trade deal on May 8 added tothe optimism. Thetariff relentfrom the US came earlierthan anticipated, giving confidence that if negative tariffimpacts do arrive we’ll get further relents. Our US equityanalysts now sees the S&P500 at 6550 by end-end25. Key downside risks to our view −Trade war.Trade policy remains a key risk. A prolongedstandoff could undermine global trade momentum andfuel macro volatility, especially via pre-tariff inventoryand import distortions.H ❑Tensions persist in semiconductors and rare earths.Trumprecently orderedUS firms to halt chip designsoftware to China and initiated a broader semiconductorprobe. Export controls on rare earths remain largely intact.On May 30, Trump alleged that China had breached thetrade truce. China responded saying that the US in turnhas “violated” its trade agreements and has vowed toretaliate. −US credibility.Investor confidence may weaken amiderratic policy signals and May’s Moody’s downgrade.The US’s ability to fund its twin deficits could comeunder greater scrutiny. The May 7 performancedivergence remains a key US resilience indicator.M Mag 7 closed the month at +13.4%, its strongest month since May 2023 ❑TheMag7reboundedsharplyonMay12(+5.7%)followingtheUS–Chinatradedétente.ThiscappedarecoverythathadbeenunderwaysincelateApril,drivenbyimprovingUSpolicysignalsandeasingtradetensions. ❑StocksalsoralliedonthebackofUS–MiddleEasteconomicdeals,withNvidia(+24.1%inMay)andGoogle(+8.2%inMay)itskeybeneficiaries. ❑Teslagained+0.43%afterElonMuskformallyexitedpoliticsonMay29.Itsstockisup~+46%sinceitsAprilearnings,supportedbyMusk’srenewedfocusandreportsthatTeslawilllaunchAIrobotaxisinJune. ❑Appleremainsthegroup’slaggard(down~20%YTD),reflectingitsrelativeweaknessinAI-relatedinitiatives. ❑Other May news highlights: ❑Amazon signed a deal with the New York Times to use itscontent for AI model training.❑Alphabet introduced its “AI Mode” feature in Google Searchacross US users.❑Apple was threatened with25% tariffson its devices by Trumpunless the company shifts its production to the US.Meta’scourt case on combining Instagram and WhatsApp concludedMay 27; the company awaits the ruling.❑Microsoft announced it would cut 3% of its workforce on May13, marking its largest layoffs since early 2023.❑Nvidia plans to build a new base in Taiwan, supporting it with10,000 Blackwell chips in partnership with the Taiwanesegovernment.❑Teslamust localizeits entire EV supply chain in the US, perTrum