德意志银行主题研究我们需要多少确定性-118128577

How much certainty do we need? October 2025 Stefan AbrudanResearch AnalystStefan.Abrudan@db.com+44 207 545 0755 Galina PozdnyakovaResearch AnalystGalina.Pozdnyakova@db.com+44 207 547 4994 Luke TemplemanResearch AnalystLuke.Templeman@db.com+44 207 541 0130 Luke Templeman: Thematic Strategist Luke focusses on capital markets and long-term strategy. He has previouslyworked on both the buy-side and sell-side of private equity, investmentbanking, and asset management. Luke holds an MBA from LondonBusiness School, a Master of Commerce from Macquarie University,Sydney, and is a qualified CPA. Galina Pozdnyakova: Research Analyst Galina joined the Thematic Research team in 2021. She holds a bachelordegree in economics and a master degree in finance. Stefan Abrudan: Research Analyst Stefan joined the Thematic Research team in 2025. He holds a bachelor'sdegree in economics and previously workedin emerging marketssales. Executive summary–Which indicators of certainty should we takeseriously? Our M&A growth indicator Our M&A indicator for the US–The environment is improving from its most pessimisticearlier this year. Several indicators have turned positive since the last full update in ourindicator below and may usher in a more rapid recovery Below are four of the most important factors driving our US M&A growth model.Importantly, several of them have trended in a positive direction since the summerindicating a better backdrop for Q4 Commodity prices have been the leastvolatile in the last 10 yearsBloomberg commodity index Key drivers driving US M&A growth(by number) ➢CEO confidence:The initial reboundfrom the depths of the post-tariffannouncement low has not beensustained. CEOs now report moreconcern about the geopoliticaloutlook and economic uncertainty. ➢Commodity prices:A steep run-upsince the summer. Various factorsincluding resilient economic growthbut also geopolitical instabilityboosting oil and gold. Still, higherprices tend to align with M&Aannouncements. ➢Russell 2000:A sign of broadermarket sentiment beyond themega-caps. A particularly goodsignal for companies that are morefocussed on a single business andthus can be more conservative intimes of uncertainty. ➢Money supply:Now back to normallevels of growth. Our M&A indicator for the Eurozone–Our model indicates a recovery into year-end Far less negative volatility than in the US. Looking for M&A numbers to return to‘normal’ levels of growth in 2026 Our3m-forward forecast for growth in the Eurozone M&A deal numbers Similar to the situation in the US, some of the key factors driving European M&A havetrended upwards since the summer Commodity prices have been their moststable in the last 10 yearsBloomberg commodity index Key drivers driving European M&Agrowth (by number) ➢Commodity prices:A steep run-upsince the summer. Various factorsincluding resilient economic growthbut also geopolitical instabilityboosting oil and gold. Still, higherprices tend to align with M&Aannouncements. ➢Consumer confidence:Following asharp drop in April, consumerexpectations have stabilised as tariffuncertainty has diminished. The lag in loan growth makes a Q3 dropsomewhat expectedEurozone IG loan growth 3m % ➢EUR:Continues to rally onexpectations of further rate cuts inthe US and a shift away from dollarassets. ➢IG Loans:This is a very volatileindicator and can operate with a lagfrom macro events. We will watchfor movement in Q4 to indicate thatcompanies were more active insourcing financing in Q3. As with the US and Europe, key indicators for British M&A are trending in a positivedirection. Key drivers driving UK M&A growth(by number) ➢Small Caps:These stocks haverallied since the summer alongsidethe large-cap FTSE 100 since theApril low. The UK’s positiverelationship with the US has helpedsentiment. ➢GBP:The pound continues tostrengthen following better-than-expected GDP and labour data, plusthe BoE’s approach of slower paceof monetary easing. ➢2Y10Y:Expectations of rate cuts inthe US put pressure on the dollarand benefited the euro. Fiscalconcerns and risk premiums led tohigher yields for long-dated bonds.Gilt yields also followed marketsoutside of the UK that saw a similarsteepening. Our model currently shows threestrong correlations betweenmarket factors and UK M&A. Are corporates distracted? Why is M&A not following the usual trend of rising with equity markets? One reason is thatthe policy uncertainty of 2025 has given CEOsmorecertainty about things in their businessthat need attention. That has detracted their focus somewhat from acquisition plans “Given current economic and trade policy uncertainties, what strategies is yourorganisation planning to implement in the next 12 months?”(Survey in Q2 2025) Plus, CEOs are under pressure to deliver an AI strategy–another distraction from M&Aand external investment. That said, many corporates are investigating a ‘buy over build’strategy to catching up on AI for their firm. Corporates also r