镍、钢铁和汽车：印尼的出口禁令和国内附加值

Policy Research Working Paper Nickel, Steel and Cars Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Indonesia Hiau Looi KeeEnze Xie Policy Research Working Paper11249 Abstract Nickel is essential for producing iron and steel. Endowedwith the world’s largest reserve, Indonesia banned nickelexports in 2014 to promote industrialization. This paperstudies the impacts of the export ban on downstream ratio (DVAR) in exports, the entry of smaller, inefficientfirms led to aggregate efficiency losses downstream. Firm-level evidence confirms higher DVAR, smaller firm size,and larger entrant shares in downstream industries post theexport ban. A field mission validated these results, while This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by theWorld Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around theworld. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Nickel, Steel and Cars: Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added in Keywords:Exportban,domesticvalue-addedinexports,industrialpolicy,monopsony,criticalmineral,efficiencyloss. JELCodes:F13,F14,F52,L13,L52 We thank Csilla Lakatos, Lars Moller, Habib Rab, Daria Taglioni and participants at the Online Australasian Seminarin International Economics (OASIS), the World Bank Indonesia Country Office and DECTI Seminars, and the PIIE LunchSeminar, for valuable comments. We thank Mochamad Pasha for providing assistance to the Indonesian manufacturingfirms data processing. We thank Rui Zhang for providing the concordance table between KBLI and HS code and otherhelpful discussions. The authors are grateful to the in-depth and insightful discussions during a field investigation withthe representatives of Indonesian’s nickel miners, metal and steel firms, automotive parts and cars manufacturers, batteryindustry and researchers at Prospera, Center for Strategic and International Independent Studies, Lowy Institute, Institutefor Economic and Social Research, University of Indonesia. The authors gratefully acknowledge supports provided by theWorld Bank Indonesia Country Office and the Umbrella Facility for Trade, which is funded by the governments of The What we are looking at is to shift our policy from merely exporting raw minerals that willbe utilized by other countries to produce higher value products, to developing our processingcapabilities. This will result in added value for our minerals-related exports, provide a much- —Philippine Senate President Francis Chiz G. Escudero, Feb 03, 2025 We believe that steel demand in Indonesia is also expected to keep growing in the industriessuch as automobiles, motorcycles and also in the infrastructure and energy sectors. —Press release: Establishment of PT. Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Indonesia, Dec 22, 2014 PT Krakatau Nippon Steel Synergy (PT KNSS) will contribute to all of stakeholders andIndonesian automotive Industry by providing high-grade and high-quality cold-rolled steelproducts, hot-dip galvanized steel products, and galvannealed steel products and service. —Mission Statement of PT. KNSS, Dec 26th, 2012 1Introduction Indonesia has the world’s largest reserve of nickel, which is a crucial input to produce iron andsteel, and a primary ingredient for batteries that are essential for the production of electric vehicles(EVs). Despite Indonesia’s longstanding role as a major exporter of nickel, the Indonesian governmentbanned nickel ore exports in 2014. Industrial deepening by promoting the domestic value-added in thedownstream industries, referred to as “downstreaming”, is part of the stated policy goals. Establishing This paper studies the effects of the nickel export ban on the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR)in exports of the downstream iron/steel-using industries of Indonesia. Given that iron/steel productsare used widely by firms in industries that produce cars, car parts, metal pipes, machinery, furniture,and construction materials, these firms are collectively referred to as the car firms in this paper forsimplicity.To understand the unintended tradeoff, this paper also studies the aggregate allocative To illustrate how the export ban on nickel may affect the domestic value-added of downstreamindustries, concurrently affecting aggregate allocative efficiency, this paper first presents a three-sectormodel, consisting of the primary sector producing nickel, the secondary sector using nickel as aninput to produce st