在气候变化和极端水文事件的背景下提高大坝的安全性和弹性：详细的方法和案例研究（英）2025

Detailed Methodologies and Case Studies About the Global Department for Water The World Bank Group’s Global Department for Water brings together financing,knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s globalknowledge with country investments, this model generates more firepower fortransformational solutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us atwww.worldbank.org/wateror follow us on:@WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & SanitationPartnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the WorldBank’s Global Department for Water and supported by Australia’s Departmentof Foreign Affairs and Trade; Austria’s Federal Ministry of Finance; Denmark’sMinistry of Foreign Affairs; the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, theGates Foundation; Spain’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business; the SwedishInternational Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s State Secretariatfor Economic Affairs; the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; andthe United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Please visit us atwww.worldbank.org/gwspor follow us on:@TheGwsp About the Safety ofDams and DownstreamCommunitiesseries This publication is part of a series produced by the Global Dams and ReservoirsTeam of the World Bank and has been developed under a cohesive programfocused on the introduction of innovative tools and techniques, generation ofnew knowledge, and the development and dissemination of good internationalindustry practices. This is achieved through a combination of strategic analyses,advisory activities, and the provision of technical assistance. This work aims topromote collaboration and knowledge exchange among World Bank task teamsand with other stakeholders working on resilient water security, disaster riskmanagement, and quality infrastructure improvements. Enhancing the Safety and Resilience of Damsin the Context of Climate Change and ExtremeHydrological Events Detailed Methodologies and Case Studies October 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored byothers does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025. “Enhancing the Safety and Resilience of Dams in the Context of ClimateChange and Extreme Hydrological Events: Detailed Methodologies and Case Studies.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo:© Marcus Wishart / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Contents Acknowledgments.........................................................................................................................................viiAbbreviations..................................................................................................................................................ixintroduction....................................................................................................................................................xi PARTi: DETAiLED METHODOLOGiES OF CLiMATE CHANGEiMPACT ASSESSMENT Chapter 1Estimation of the Probable Maximum Precipitation...........................................................2 Methods for PMP Estimation........................................