在气候变化和极端水文事件的背景下加强大坝的安全性和弹性：技术说明

Enhancing the Safety andResilience of Dams in the Contextof Climate Change and ExtremeHydrological Events About the Global Department for Water The World Bank Group’s Global Department for Water brings together financing,knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s global Please visit us atwww.worldbank.org/wateror follow us on:@WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & SanitationPartnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the WorldBank’s Global Department for Water and supported by Australia’s Department About theSafety of Dams and Downstream This publication is part of a series produced by the Global Dams and ReservoirsTeam of the World Bank and has been developed under a cohesive programfocused on the introduction of innovative tools and techniques, generation of new Enhancing the Safety andResilience of Dams in the Context October 2025 © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:https://www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in thiswork and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, orliability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions setforth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages the dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2025. “Enhancing the Safety and Resilience of Dams in theContext of Climate Change and Extreme Hydrological Events.” Technical Note. World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; Cover photo: India CPMU-DRIP (Central Project Management Unit – DRIP). Used with permission. Furtherpermission required for reuse. Cover design: Bill Pragluski, Critical Stages, LLC. Contents Acknowledgments...............................................................................................................viiAbbreviations........................................................................................................................ix Chapter 1introduction........................................................................................................1 Background and Analytical Frameworks.........................................................................................................1Analytical Frameworks for Addressing Climate Change-Related Uncertainties................................3Guidelines and Good Practice Notes...............................................................................................................3Objectives of this Technical Note......................................................................................................................4 Main Concepts of Structural and Operational Dam Safety.......................................................................7Hydrological Safety of Dams............................................................................................................................10Main Concepts of Climate Risk and Resilience Assessments...................................................................11Risk Assessment for Dam Safety under Climate Change.........................................................................14 Design and Check Floods...............................................................................17 Overview..................................................................................................................................................................17Probable Maximum Precipitation and Probable Maximum Flood..........................................................17General Circulation Models...............................................................................................................................23Assessment of Design and Safety Check Floods.......................................................................................28 Chapter 4Options for Assessing Climate Changeimpacts on Extreme Flood Events.................................................