电气时代：从中国制造到中国提供动力、设计和融资？

The electro-state era: from Made in China to Powered,Designed & Financed by China? 29 October 2025 Allianz Research Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 6-9China as the world’s first electro-state and a critical Page 10-13The perils: from export traps to Japanification Page 14-21The policy pillars: AI-led productivity and domestic Page 22-29 The Renminbi’s next phase: from property shock to ExecutiveSummary •China as the world’s first electro-state: a critical provider and blueprintfor the world on clean-tech.China has established itself as a globalfrontrunner in the clean-tech industry, channeling the majority of itsrecord investments into renewables. Projections indicate that Chinacould double its power generation from renewables within the next fiveyears, displacing fossil fuels within electricity supply. Massive investmentshave also positioned China as the global leader in clean energy relatedindustrial products, accounting for 60% of global manufacturing capacity Françoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-trade.com Julia BelousovaEmerging Market Debt Strategistjulia.belousova@allianz.com Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisor •But as China prepares its next five-year plan (2026-2030), its economicmodel faces multiple threats, from the ever-fragmenting global orderto the domestic threat (or reality) of Japanification.Following the 4thPlenum in Beijing on 20-23 October, a proposal for the 15th five-yearplan (2026-2030) has been released, mostly highlighting policy continuity,with priority given to “scientific and technological self-reliance” and somefocus on building “a robust domestic market”. But what worked in the pastmay not be enough to address the clouds looming over China’s economicoutlook in the years ahead. First is the risk of its export shocks turning intoexport traps: Since 2018, China’s export prowess has moved decisively upthe value chain into high-tech and green sectors, and it has also managed Patrick HoffmannEconomist, ESG & AIpatrick.hoffmann@allianz.com Lisa ChevrierAssistant Research •Two policy pillars should be in focus. First, innovation and AI as growthmultipliers: lifting productivity by banking on China’s innovation potential(ranked 10th globally) and its co-leadership with the US in the global AI race.Total factor productivity growth in China has been gradually declining in the pastyears. In this context, Chinese authorities are likely to continue focusing policyefforts on R&D and innovation. China’s innovation capacity has made consistentgains, with the country entering the global top 10 in 2025 on WIPO’s GlobalInnovation Index, up from 29 in 2015. Meanwhile, China and the US are neck andneck at the front of the global AI race: China leads in research scale, industrial •Second, rebalancing towards domestic demand: giving jobs, time, income andconfidence to consumers.Boosting household consumption requires restoringconsumer confidence to free up high saving rates and Chinese authoritiesare likely to continue focusing on stemming the property downturn. Each -1%further decline in housing prices could reduce private consumption by around0.2% of GDP. We estimate that RMB2trn of funding (nearly 2% of GDP) is likelyneeded for the government to help bringing the level of housing inventories tomore sustainable levels. However, rebalancing towards domestic demand willalso require giving jobs, time and income to consumers. Pairing AI-related andtechnology upgrades with targeted service-sector incentives can help maximizingemployment gains and solidifying China’s transition from a manufacturing •The RMB’s next phase: the property downturn as a financial turning point?While there is no indication yet of a systemic financial crisis, the propertydownturn is materially affecting several critical funding channels, householdwealth and investor confidence. The number of defaults and debt restructurings reflect weak market expectations. The property slump and successive developerdefaults have eroded confidence in domestic assets, contributing to portfoliooutflows as investors reassess China’s risk profile. In this context, continuedpolicy efforts to open and deepen Chinese capital markets may be even morenecessary. Authorities consider banking on China’s economic strengths to usegreen finance, external trade in commodity and technology as spearheads of Allianz Research China asthe world’s first electro-stateand a critical provider to the world China has established itself as a global frontrunnerin the clean-tech industry, channeling the majority ofits record investments into renewables.Projectionsindicate that China could double its power generationfrom renewables within the next five years. As of 2025,China accounts for 27% of global energy investments,spending around USD893bn or 4.6% of its GDP on theenergy sector. Around 70% of the investments went toclean-energy sources, with solar (USD204bn; 32%), wind energy capacity on the planet, acc