电力国家时代：从“中国制造”到“中国驱动、中国设计、中国融资”？

from Made in China to Powered,Designed & Financed by China? 29 October 2025 Allianz Research Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 6-9China as the world’s first electro-state and a criticalprovider to the world Page 10-13The perils: from export traps to Japanification Page 14-21The policy pillars: AI-led productivity and domesticrebalancing Page 22-29 The Renminbi’s next phase: from property shock tocapital-market opening ExecutiveSummary •China as the world’s first electro-state: a critical provider and blueprintfor the world on clean-tech.China has established itself as a globalfrontrunner in the clean-tech industry, channeling the majority of itsrecord investments into renewables. Projections indicate that Chinacould double its power generation from renewables within the next fiveyears, displacing fossil fuels within electricity supply. Massive investmentshave also positioned China as the global leader in clean energy relatedindustrial products, accounting for 60% of global manufacturing capacityin solar, wind and battery technologies. Despite overcapacity concerns,China’s clean energy developments have helped to drive down pricesof key climate technologies (e.g. -80% in solar photovoltaic module inthe past decade), enabling developing economies (such as in South andSoutheast Asia and East Africa) to leapfrog directly into renewables. Whilechallenges remain, China’s clean-tech leadership demonstrates that theenergy transition can be both ambitious and achievable when backed bycoordinated policy, innovation and international collaboration. Françoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-trade.com Julia BelousovaEmerging Market Debt Strategistjulia.belousova@allianz.com Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisorguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.com •But as China prepares its next five-year plan (2026-2030), its economicmodel faces multiple threats, from the ever-fragmenting global orderto the domestic threat (or reality) of Japanification.Following the 4thPlenum in Beijing on 20-23 October, a proposal for the 15th five-yearplan (2026-2030) has been released, mostly highlighting policy continuity,with priority given to “scientific and technological self-reliance” and somefocus on building “a robust domestic market”. But what worked in the pastmay not be enough to address the clouds looming over China’s economicoutlook in the years ahead. First is the risk of its export shocks turning intoexport traps: Since 2018, China’s export prowess has moved decisively upthe value chain into high-tech and green sectors, and it has also managedto cut reliance on foreign inputs for its manufacturing, achieving near-sovereignty in strategic sectors such as power generation equipment,high-end rail and agricultural technology. Even if the US and China reach atrade deal, the global order is changing, with more protectionist measures,industrial policies and shifts in global supply chains, potentially turningthe economy’s heavy dependence on global trade into a trap. At the sametime, declining demographics threaten the foundations of sustained privateconsumption growth, while youth unemployment undermines middle-class formation and spending capacity. The property downturn’s wealthdestruction also weighs heavily on consumer confidence and consumption:we estimate that more than RMB3trn of household spending (equivalent tomore than 2% of 2024 GDP) has been foregone since 2021. Patrick HoffmannEconomist, ESG & AIpatrick.hoffmann@allianz.com Lisa ChevrierAssistant Research •Two policy pillars should be in focus. First, innovation and AI as growthmultipliers: lifting productivity by banking on China’s innovation potential(ranked 10th globally) and its co-leadership with the US in the global AI race.Total factor productivity growth in China has been gradually declining in the pastyears. In this context, Chinese authorities are likely to continue focusing policyefforts on R&D and innovation. China’s innovation capacity has made consistentgains, with the country entering the global top 10 in 2025 on WIPO’s GlobalInnovation Index, up from 29 in 2015. Meanwhile, China and the US are neck andneck at the front of the global AI race: China leads in research scale, industrialecosystem depth and extensive rare earth production, while the US retains clearadvantages in capital intensity and technological infrastructure. Innovationand AI could help lift productivity, especially in manufacturing sectors such aschemicals, food processing, metals and mining, electrical machinery & equipment,wood and furniture, textiles and communication equipment, computers & otherelectronic equipment. In these sectors, we find that a +10% increase in R&Dintensity would raise productivity by +7% on average. •Second, rebalancing towards domestic demand: giving jobs, time, income andconfidence to consumers.Boosting household consumption requires restoringconsumer confidence to free up high saving rates and Chinese authoritiesare lik