城市能源系统新兴脆弱性的理论与实践反思

Dr. Jiaqi RuanAssociate ProfessorCollege of Electrical EngineeringSichuan University Outline 1. Background 2. Analysis of Emerging Vulnerabilitiesin Urban Energy Systems 3. The Road Ahead 2024 Lebanon Pager Explosion On September 17-18, 2024, Lebanon experienced several pager-triggered explosions. Remotely triggerable explosives were pre-equipped in pagers and activated through theirbuilt-incommunication capabilities and pre-programmed detonationmechanisms. This incident results in at least 42 fatalities, more than 3,ooo injuries, and inestimablesocioeconomiclosses. It marks a new frontier in cyber-physical threats, revealing vulnerabilities in loT-enabled edgedevices,especiallyinurbansettings. Evolving Modern Cities Cyber-PhysicalIntegration Cities are the central hubs of modern civilization Urban Energy Systems Urban energy systems serve as the techno.social lifeline of modern cities. Recent trends in digitalization,electrificationanddecentralizationhavebeendrivingtheincreasingintegration ofloT-enabled edgedevicesintourbanenergysystems,promoting more intelligent and efficientmanagement. The large-scale integration of edge devicesmay render urban energy systems vulnerabletothreats similarto theLebanonincident. Urban energy systems are highly complex,safety-criticalinfrastructurethatinvolvemanyhazardousmaterialsandprocesses.Anydisruption withinthese systems maytrigger cascading socio-technical failures. Classical Vulnerability Theory Theory To manage potential failures,the vulnerability theoryhaslongbeenestablished inpowerandenergysystems researchto account for contingencies that may occur during systemoperations. Classical vulnerability research has focused on criticalequipment such as substations, transformers, and high.voltage transmission lines, often employing well-establishedprinciples like N-k contingency analysis to assess systemvulnerability. With the growing integration of edge devices, urban energysystemsmayfacelarge-scaleedgedevicefailurestriggeredbycyber-physical threats (similar to pager explosions). Suchscenarios move beyond the analytical boundaries oftraditional vulnerability theory. To cope with this, both theory and practice must be updated Outline 1. Background 2. Analysis of Emerging Vulnerabilitiesin Urban Energy Systems 3. The Road Ahead Historical Attacks on Vulnerabilities Inhistory,severalattackstargetingelectricityinfrastructurehavebeenwitnessedworldwide. The 2019 Venezuela blackout, caused by a cyberattack disrupting substations and power plantsThese historical attacks,along with others long studied in academia, mainly targeted critical equipment.systems,orfunctions,highlighting the vulnerabilities of centralized infrastructure.With growing awareness of cyberthreats and advancements in security technologies,modern powersystems have become more resilient, with enhanced internal protections that make similar attacksmuchhardertosucceed. Traditional research mainly focuses on vulnerabilities from critical components Emerging Vulnerabilities The Lebanon incident represents a fundamentally different threat to electricity infrastructure, in whichattacks no longertarget nowwell-secured critical components,but instead exploit weaknesses inedgedevices. While power utilities typically secure the critical equipment they procure and manage, many edgedevicesoften civilian, consumer-grade productsremain beyond their oversight, generallysubject to relaxed regulation and operating in communication environments where security isnotassured. In today's tightly interwoven global supply chains, these edge devices, comprising variouscomponents such as semiconductor chips and other electronics, may be compromised at multiplestages. Such vulnerabilities may be deliberately triggered at critical moments, leading to device failures oreven explosions, jeopardizing urban energy system operations. Definition of Emerging Vulnerabilities The systemic risk arising from edge device failures that, while individually negligible, can triggerurban energy system cascading failures or performance degradation beyond acceptable thresholds Implications for Emerging Vulnerabilities Urban energy systems are resilient to the failure of a few edge devices. The Lebanon incident demonstrates that it is possible for numerousedge devices to fail seguentially or simultaneously Thefailureofmassivesmartmeters BalancingImpairthe observability of urbanenergysystemsDisruptkeyfunctionslikestateestimationTriggererroneousdispatchdecisionsandrisksystemoperations The failure of massive distributed PV systems Disrupt the supply-demand balanceHeighten the risk of city-wide blackouts Implications for Emerging Vulnerabilities Some edge devices are inherently dangerous, such as distributed battery energy storage systems(BEsSs)orhydrogenfuelcellsthatposethermalandexplosionrisks In 2025, the explosion of a home-equipped BESS in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany destroyed a residentialbuilding. Electric ve