是否会出台更多房地产政策支持金融稳定？

More property measures to support financial stability? EquityChina Bloomberg reported on Thursday that, in order to maintain financial system stability,China policymakers are now considering new property supportive policies, in particularmortgage subsidies. Other measures reportedly under consideration include raisingincome tax rebates for mortgage borrowers (could cover existing homebuyers, but Karl Choi, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3108 The right direction, but it would takeeven more efforts Eric Du>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3329 We have thought for some time thatdemand-side measures (rather than supply-side)would be better at shoring up the property market more quickly, and mortgage subsidycould be one measure that is more effective, now that home purchase restrictions havelargely been relaxed. However, we do recognize that it would take more than mortgagesubsidy to stabilize home price expectation. The mild stock price reaction on Thurssuggests investor skepticism about the policy likelihood and/or efficacy. Given our Policy sustainability as the key Under the recently introduced consumer loan interest rebate scheme, there is only one-year time window and the rebate only applies to accrued interest within the respectivetime window. It remains unclear if policy makers would roll out a longer-time window forthe home mortgage rebate as mortgage loan duration is much longer. In our view, therebate policy can only meaningfully enhance homebuyers’home buying appetite if thewindow is extended to at least 3–5 years. In our view, if the blended borrowing cost is Sensitivityanalysis on home mortgage rebate Assuming the program lastsfive years, and average annual home transaction valuereaches RMB 1.2 trillion (with 60% financed through bank loans), the annual rebate inthe first year could range from RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 36 billion (effective rebate forhalf a year, as purchases occur throughout the year), based on a 10–100 bps interestrate rebate. Five years later, cumulative rebates could rise to RMB 32 billion to RMB >> Employed by anon-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Exhibit5:Negative carry in tier 1 cities (rental yield minusmortgagecost) Source:Centaline; BofA Global Research Exhibit7:China property developer valuationChina property developers trade at 8x 2027E P/E on average Price objective basis & risk Our 12-month price objective of HK$21.4 is based on 10x 2027E P/E (reflecting 2025Epresales), or roughly 2SD above historical average since 2022 to reflect earnings Downside risks: frequent placements in history, lower-than-expected margin, relativelyshort land-bank duration, policy easing execution poorer-than-expected. China Overseas Land & Investment (CAOVF) Our 12-month price objective of HK$16 is based on 10x 2027E P/E (reflecting 2025Epresales), or roughly 2SD above historical average since 2018 to reflect earnings Downside risks: If COLI is unable to meet profit growth or sales targets, its share price Upside risks: COLI is well positioned to consolidate small names with its strong balancesheet, SOE background and execution. COLI's contract sales and earnings growth may Our 12-month price objective of HK$39.0 is based on 11x 2027E P/E (reflecting 2025Epresales), or roughly 2SD above historical average since 2018 to reflect rising earnings contribution from recurring income. The upside risk to our price objective: Better-than-expected contract sales and rising The downside risks are: Rising land costs, declines in selling prices, low occupancy for CR Mixc Lifestyle (CXRMF) Our PO of HK$46.0/share is based on 10x/25x/10x FY26E P/E to property management,commercial management and office management segment. The higher P/E multiple forshopping mall management is in line with the premium consumer brands' average Upside risks: 1) faster SSSG, 2) better-than-expected margin improvementDownside risks: 1) slowdown in retail sales, 2) poor cash collection from property Analyst Certification We, Karl Choi, CFA and Eric Du, hereby certify that the views each of us has expressed inthis research report accurately reflect each of our respective personal views about thesubject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our respective The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Darkgrey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium greyshading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart is current as of a date no more