中国房地产行业：10月国家统计局商品房销售额同比下降约20%，房地产行业景气度（REI）加速恶化

NBS Oct home sales decline widened to c.20% YoY EquityChina According to NBS, Oct national new-home sales volume/value was down 19.6%/24.6%YoY. In the same month, the 30 major cities we track saw primary home sales volumedown 29% YoY, and the top-100 developers recorded contracted sales value drop of40%+ YoY. Performance by tier: according to CRIC, in Oct, tier-1/2 cities’primary homesales saw 35%/38% YoY value decline, implying only an 8% drop for lower-tier cities. For Karl Choi, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3108 Eric Du>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 3329 In 10M25, national new-home sales volume/value was down by 7.0%/9.4% YoY–vs. top-100 developers’17% contracted sales value drop. For secondary home volume during Benson Wu, CFAChina & Korea EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5047benson.wu@bofa.com We expect 2025 national home sales volume/value drop to be wider than our projection(5–7% volume drop and 8–10% value drop per our forecast) given tough comps topersist in Nov–Dec. Top-100 developers’contracted sales likely to drop c.20% YoY in Summer Wang, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4351 New starts and REI drop accelerated in Oct Residential new starts declined by 34.7% YoY in Oct vs. down by 19.8% in 10M25. In10M25, new starts represented c.60% of home sales volume. Residential completionarea declined 15.2% YoY in Oct vs. 16.9% YoY fall in 10M25. Total Real EstateInvestment posted 22.9% YoY decline in Oct vs. -13.8% in 10M25. REI was c.-20% YoY Yoyo Pang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7607 Tier-1 cities secondary price corrected faster In Oct, secondary home price dropped by 0.7% MoM (vs. 0.7% MoM in Sept). Tier-1/2/3cities secondary home price edged down by 0.9%/0.6%/0.7% MoM, respectively. Primaryhome price dropped by 0.4% MoM in Oct (vs. 0.4% MoM in Sept). Tier-1/2/3 citiesprimary home price edged down by 0.3%/0.4%/0.5% MoM, respectively. Since 2H25,tier-1 cities’secondary home price has corrected faster compared to tier-2 and tier-3, NBS: National Bureau of Statistics REI: real estate investment MoHURD: Ministry of Housing Urban& Rurual Development NBS property data summary Source:CREIS (China Real Estate Index System); BofA Global Research Source:CRIC, BofA Global Research BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Source:NBS, BofA Global Research Disclosures Important Disclosures FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicatorsof potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst’s assessment of both a stock’s absolute total returnpotential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocksare expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat orincrease in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment ratingof 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0- R1Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster. INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7-same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8-same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure)and 9-pays no cash dividend.Coverage Clusteris comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector,region or other classification(s). A stock’s coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of AmericaCorporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overallprofitability of the Bank’s sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible. Other Important Disclosures From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. BofA Global Research policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publiclytraded price of the security as of