从贫困到繁荣的转变（英）

Poverty-to-Prosperity Transitions Second World Summit for Social Development, Doha Executive Summary The development landscape has changeddramatically since the First World SocialSummit on Development was held inCopenhagen in 1995. Hundreds of millionsof people escaped poverty and lifespansincreased by 6.2 years across the globe.Poverty-to-prosperity transitions areongoing and have changed societies buthave also transformed our way of thinkingabout policymaking –shifting from sectoral bridge from poverty reduction to lastingprosperity. Adaptive social protection works: Undermoderate climate or macro shocks,adaptive social protection can halvepoverty volatility and significantly lowertime-in-poverty by 0.5to-0.9 percentagepoints per decade. Active labour marketpolicies also work. When shocks hit labourmarkets, active labour-market policies can offset 32–64 percent of poverty andvulnerability losses in regions with large If Copenhagen was aboutrecognizingsocial rights, Doha is about operationalizingthem under fiscal, This paper reviews five policy challengesrelated to the multidimensional andsystemic challenges of poverty-to-prosperity transitions. UNDP’s newsimulations show that distribution-ledgrowth could lift a further 411 millionpeople in developing countries above theircontext-specific prosperity floors, whileadaptive labour protection can offset up to institutional and governance constraints.The center of gravity has shifted frompoverty-line management to shaping jobsand asset markets, strengthening socialprotection and basic services, and workingas a system under conditions of highvolatility. A binding wage floor, worker power in wage-setting,pre-distributionin Table of Contents EXECUTIVES UMMARY1 1.INTRODUCTION31.A.THIRTY YEARS SINCECOPENHAGEN31.B.GROWTH FOOTPRINTS:WHAT WE’VE LEARNED SINCE THE1990S4BOX1:GROWTH FOOTPRINT:DISTINCT FOOTPRINTS REQUIRE DISTINCT RESPONSES51.C.ANEW UNDERSTANDING OF HOW TRANSITIONS HAPPEN62.POVERTY-TO-PROSPERITY TRANSITIONS6Challenge # 1. Higher thresholds of inclusive well-being require moving beyond targeting6BOX2:SIMULATING A PROSPERITY FLOOR8Challenge # 2. Bottom of the distribution: Vulnerability and avoiding exit-and-return11BOX3:SHAPING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION TO COUNTRY REALITIES12Challenge # 3. Middle of the distribution: Dynamic labour markets and adaptive16Protection16BOX4.FROM JOBS AT RISK TO JOBS OF THE FUTURE:SIMULATING ADAPTIVE LABOUR PROTECTION17FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE DISTRIBUTION17Challenge # 4. Micro, macro and global levers: What is the right policy mix?19BOX5:MULTIDIMENSIONALPOVERTYINDEX202520Challenge # 5. Deep integration: Capabilities to get things done on the ground223.THEWAYFORWARD23ACHIEVING THEDOHAPOLITICALDECLARATION23APPENDIX.METHODOLOGICAL NOTES ON THE SIMULATIONS25 Campaign on Debt Relief, the SDGs andmuch more.1 1. Introduction The development landscape has changeddramatically since the First World SocialSummit on Development was held inCopenhagen in 1995. Hundreds of millionsof people escaped poverty and lifespansincreased by 6.2 years. Much of this was The Doha Political Declaration restatesthree core pillars of that foundationalmoment: poverty eradication, full andproductive employment and decent workfor all, and social integration—this time, ina context of low growth, geopolitical A lot has changed over the decades.Approximately 1.5 billion people exitedextreme poverty since 1990; thegeography of overlapping povertydeprivations has shifted from East Asiaand Southeast Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa There were no silver bullets, but manypolicy experiments that continue toprovide empirical lessons from across theglobe. These poverty-to-prosperitytransitions are ongoing and will continueto transform development trajectories in Conditional cash transfers, first rolled outin Brazil and Mexico in the 1990s, havematured and have left many lessons onhow and where they are most effective.3 Substantively, policymakers have movedfrom sectoral interventions that targetedpoverty to systemic architectures thatpromote broad-based prosperity, well-being and inclusion -covering jobs,incomes and livelihoods, asset markets, Randomized controlled trials (RCTs), whichtook off in the early 2000s, have deliveredmicro evidence on what works and what does not.4The expansion of these impact-evaluation methods has since transformedempirical development economics and In this paper we review what has beenachieved since the foundationalCopenhagen conference three decadesago, and chart five policy challenges andopportunities that we believe will shapethe 21st century. Ultimately, transitions aredriven by the capabilities of people who Copenhagen also shaped the multilateralresponse to the social agenda. The MDGspaved the way for evidence-based globaltargets. The SDGs have expanded thisapproach and have now also provided Poverty-to-prosperitytransitions are the result ofstrategic and deliberatepolicy choices thatconnect the dots between 1.a. Thi