财政政策对通胀预期的影响（英）

The Impact of FiscalPolicy on Inflation Francisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama,and Shiqing Hua WP/25/231 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation ExpectationsPrepared byFrancisco Arizala, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama, and Shiqing Hua* Authorized for distribution byBikas Joshi IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on inflation expectations across a large sample ofadvanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMs). We identify episodes of significant fiscaladjustment using both quantitative thresholds and a narrative approach and find that such episodes areassociated with statistically significant changes in inflation expectations in EMs while the responses are muted RECOMMENDED CITATION:Arizala, Francisco, Santiago Bazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama, and Shiqing Hua.2025. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation Expectations. IMF Working Papers WP/25/231. WORKING PAPERS The Impact of FiscalPolicyon Prepared byFrancisco Arizala,SantiagoBazdresch, Tomohide Mineyama,andShiqing Hua1 Contents Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................3Fiscal Shocks and Inflation Expectations........................................................................................................4Empirical Strategy and Results.........................................................................................................................6Macroeconomic Frameworks.............................................................................................................................8Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................................13Annex.................................................................................................................................................................14References.........................................................................................................................................................19 Introduction Fiscal and monetary policymakers around the world are navigating an increasingly complex landscape. On themonetary front, inflation has eased from its post-pandemic peaks but remains persistently high in manyeconomies. In several countries, prices—particularly in the services sector—continue to rise at rates well abovepre-pandemic norms. On the fiscal side, longstanding pressures have intensified. Demographic trends are In this context, a deeper understanding of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies—and empiricalestimates of their mutual effects—can help inform the design of coherent policy frameworks. Such frameworksshould consider the implications of policy actions for both inflation control and fiscal sustainability. Alongside The inflation targeting framework has become the dominant monetary policy paradigm globally and is creditedwith much of the success in controlling inflation and avoiding costly disinflation episodes. Within this framework,inflation expectations play a central role. Today, central banks focus as much on inflation expectations as onobserved inflation in their decision-making. Accordingly, an essential consideration for policymakers is the Several theoretical frameworks help illuminate the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation expectations.Under fiscal dominance, the central bank may adopt a more expansionary stance than warranted,accommodating government financing needs or responding to debt sustainability concerns—ultimately leadingto higher inflation (Sargent and Wallace, 1981). In this setting, government debt is too large to be repaid Another long-run paradigm is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), which posits that the aggregate pricelevel is determined by the present value of future government budget balances (Woodford, 1994; Cochrane,2005; Benigno, 2020). In this framework, money is accepted as payment because individuals expect it to retainvalue, underpinned by the government's ability to generate future surpluses. If the real value of government In a New Keynesian framework with nominal rigidities, fiscal expansions—via increased government spendingor tax cuts—can boost aggregate demand and exert upward pressure on prices. Given supply constraints, such Fiscal policy can also influence inflation through its impact on financing costs for firms and households.Fiscalconsolidation may reduce go