全球奢侈品：迪奥缩小价格差距（2025年第3季度价格差距）

Global Luxury Goods: Dior's narrow price gaps (3Q25 Price Gaps) We augment Data Boutique’s quarterly price gaps data with our own weekly dataset trackingregional handbag prices for Burberry, Chanel, Dior, Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Prada. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Regional price gaps vs. France continued to shrink in 3Q25.DataBoutique’s dataindicates that price gaps in Japan have contracted the most, with a -4.6pp sequentialreduction in price gaps to +2% above LFL prices in France, followed by price gaps in the UK Maria Meita+44 207 170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo+44 207 676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com The strengthening euro has been the main driver of narrowing price gaps.TheEUR strengthened by +2% to +5% against key currencies over the 3Q25, and is now+5% to +6% stronger YoY. The USD has remained relatively stable in 4Q25 QTD, while a Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Weaker tourist spending will impact 3Q25e earnings.A strong EUR (or weak dollar/yuan) increases prices in France for American and Chinese tourists, relative to domesticprices, reducing the attractiveness of luxury shopping trips in Europe or Japan. Pre-earnings catch up calls suggest that weaker tourist spending will weigh on EU and JP Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 207 762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Dior’s prices in Japan and the USA are now <= those in France.DataBoutique’s datafor 3Q25 points to -5% lower prices for Dior in Japan vs. France. Our own weekly handbagdata saw the same Dior handbags selling for -4% less in Japan than in France (on an FXadjusted basis, at the end of September). Dior’s prices across all key regions are, in fact,quite similar once we account for FX. Ironically, this brings its price gaps closer towards that Recent FX trends have accentuated Dior’s relatively tame early-2025 priceincreases.Data collected by DataBoutique suggests that Dior implemented a +1.7%, +2.3% and +2.4% average handbag price increase in France, China, and the USA in1H25, and may have held back from any price increases in the UK and Japan. In contrast,Hermès increased prices by 4% to 10% in the same period (see Hermès: An investmentfor all cycles? The 2025 Pricing Tailwind). Dior’s LSD 1H25 local price increases werelikely prudent in the context of consumers having been put off by Dior’s aggressive post- Dior implemented another +2-3% average price increase in Japan, China, and theUSA in end-September.This looks like an attempt to reflate regional price gaps and offsetrecent FX swings, and is unlikely to reflect an improvement in brand desirability, for now:price increases were implemented before J. Anderson’s womenswear debut, and comeon top of further mix increases - with new-ins representing the last of MGC’s productsrather than those created by J. Anderson. Nevertheless, the end-3Q25 price increase will BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS There seems to be a clear fork in the road when it comes to investing in luxury goods stocks these days. 1.If Chinese consumer confidence improves, then the sector is bound to experience a “positive” triple whammy:top line growth, operating profit margin and multiples will all move in the right direction. The comfortable way to play thisscenario would be to back the quality names – such as Hermès, Richemont and LVMH. The latter is our top pick, given all the 2.If global luxury demand continues to be lackluster or worse still moves to negative territory(for example in case ofa global recession), then the sector would continue to underperform, knowing it is not near a significant historical valuationtrough. In this environment, investors would be best served by idiosyncratic self-help stories. In this group, we think LVMHis most credible (see LVMH: Best Idea Fourth Quarter 2025 - The fears are priced in, the turnaround is not. Outperform), ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The partner for this research is Data Boutique, a marketplace for web data. Data Boutique enables users to safely buy and sell high-quality web-scraped data for fast and safe access to global productprices and discounts in global e-commerce. DETAILS EXHIBIT 3:… while highlighting price points in whichbrands have been most actively adjusting product-mix(by adding or removing SKUs). Current mix changes aredriven by the arrival of FW25/26 merchandise - SS26 EXHIBIT 5:… Dior’s price gaps across all regions areparticularly low, with prices in Japan significantly belowthose in France... EXHIBIT 6:… price gaps for Gucci are slightly more robust- this may reflect more effective local price increases EXHIBIT 7:… while prices for Louis Vuitton are closest tothe norm = highest prices in the US and China to drive Note that our data collection methodology for Dior has changed as of early-October (this is not reflected in the chart above):a broader collection method now captures prices for some products that we had previously missed. Overall, this reduces ourc