韩国：这次不同以往

This time isdifferent We factor the strong semiconductor cycle into our forecastand raise our 2026E GDP growth. We think the balance ofpayments will turn its strongest in 15 years with foreignportfolio inflows. However, we see the BoK reflecting thisgradually — we keep a November cut but see the BoK done at2.25%. Bum Ki Son, CFA+ 65 6308 5291bumki.son@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore We assess the market expectation regarding the Bank of Korea's monetary policy outlooktook a sharp turn, with some pricing even for a hike, mainly due to 1) still-elevatedproperty prices and 2) improvements in the growth outlook from the semiconductor cycle.This report primarily focuses on our take of the potential growth upside from thesemiconductor cycle. We acknowledged 40bp and USD25bn upside risks to our 2026 GDP growth and currentaccount surplus forecast, respectively, from the semiconductor upcycle (BoK: Closingwindow for October, 3 October 2025). We now incorporate this upside into our baseline andrevise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% from 1.7% previously. We also boost ourcurrent account surplus forecast to USD110bn from USD84bn. We believe KRW isundervalued, especially against improved exports and foreign portfolio inflow outlook into2026 and maintain our long KRW versus select Asian peers(see Korean won – Removingobstacles to victory, 7 November 2025). The previous semiconductor supercycle in 2016-18 featured a notable growth rebound, apickup in inflation and domestic demand, and the BoK's hiking cycle from 2017-18. Wemark a few key similarities anddifferencesbetween this time and then(Figure 1). All in, we see this cycle resembles the 2016-18 cycle for the semiconductor sectorspecifically, and see the external balances improving notably but without bigger growthtailwinds. That said, other backdrops such as weak nontech, muted inflationary pressure,and the global monetary policy cycle are verydifferentthan the 2016-18 cycle, in our view. Putting this all together, we do not expect the semiconductor upcycle to alter the BoK'simmediate policy path and thus continue to expect a cut from the BoK in November.However, we expect the BoK to gradually factor in some upside, while relatively easyfinancial conditions from the equity market likely reduce the need for the BoK to go moreaccommodative. We remove our expectation for a final cut in February 2026 and adjust ourterminal rate forecast to 2.25%. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.1% from1.7% We incorporate our upside scenario from the semiconductor exports cycle we flagged amonth ago(BoK: Closing window for October, 3 October 2025). We raise our 2026 GDP growthforecast by 40bp to 2.1% from 1.7% previously, based on the 40bp upside risk we postulated aswell as reflecting the latest data trend (Figure 3). Most notable change is we now factor in a still-solid exports growth outlook through 2026, versus our previous scenario for real goods exportscontracting in 2026 (Figure 3). External balances likely improve materially on bothcurrent account... We believe the semiconductor upcycle is likely to primarily benefit Korea's externalbalances.We raise our 2026 current account surplus forecast to USD110bn from USD84bn, withnotable improvements from the semiconductor producers. We expect goods exports to increaseby 9.7% (real exports 3.5% and priceeffect6.2%) and goods imports to increase by 9.5% (realimports 2.9% and priceeffectof 6.6%), widening the goods surplus to USD134.9bn fromUSD109.2bn previously. This marks a notable increase in the forecast goods surplus, especially for Q2, to thestrongest current account surplus dynamics in the past 15 years.Similar to our GDP growthforecast, our forecast revision assumes much a higher current account surplus starting with Q22026 — partly as some of the increases in exports from Q1 2026 are likely to beoffsetby anincrease in some imports as well (Figure 4). On top of the best current account surplus dynamicsin the past 15 years, we also expect the basic balance to improve substantially, driven by strongportfolio flows (Figure 5). ...and on the capital flows Comeback of the foreign inflows can be an important one One of the key reasons the market focused on residents' purchase of overseas assets in thepast 2-3 years was primarily due to limited foreign inflows, in our view.The Korean equitymarket saw cumulative net sales from foreign investors from 2020 to mid-2022, totallingKRW72tn. In 2024, the Korean equity market had seen close to KRW15tn of foreign inflowsthanks to the short-li