铜供应风险、teck与anto实地考察、未来一周展望及估值

EuropeNorth AmericaGlobalLatin America IndustryMetals & Mining Metals & MiningMetals & Mining Copper supply risks. TECK & ANTO sitevisits. Week ahead. Valuations. Liam Fitzpatrick Copper supply risk elevated into 2026 Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233 This week, reporting from Anglo, Glencore and FM has further highlighted the riskto copper supply on top of several other disruptions that have pushed the marketinto a clear deficit over the coming quarters (The deficit has arrived). Anglo’s Q3release included new guidance for the Collahuasi copper mine, with 2026 volumesguided broadly flat YoY due to ongoing lower grades and recoveries, implying a~6% (50-60 kt) cut to existing 2026 group copper guidance of 760-820 kt, althoughthe company plans to partly offset this through the planned restart of the secondconcentrator at Los Bronces in 2026 (~40 ktpa)). Glencore's Q3 production reportwas much stronger than expected and the company is on track to achieve 2025guidance. Glencore is hosting its first CMD since 2022 on 3 December; although wethink there is downside risk to its 2026 copper production guidance of 930 kt (dueto its 44% stake in Colalhuasi), we believe 2027/28 guidance (930 kt / 1 mt) is likelyto be broadly maintained. FM's Q3 report did not reveal any new details aroundCobre Panama negotiations, and the timing of formal discussions and a potentialrestart remain key uncertainties for the copper market (we currently model a Q2restart, but this looks increasingly like a best case scenario for the company). Wealso await a key update from FCX on 18 November when the company will provideupdated multi-year guidance for Grasberg (we provide a full summary of theGrasberg mine, the incident and latest guidance here). Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 TECK (BUY) and ANTO (HOLD): Chilean site visits Next week, we will be attending site visits to Chile hosted by Teck (3-4 November)and Antofagasta (5-6 November). The Teck trip will focus on the QB mine and thecompany’s efforts to remove the tailings dam as a constraint; this follows Teck'srecent operational update, where the company announced larger-than-expectedcuts to guidance for the 2026-28 period. The revised QB guidance assumes a slowerramp-up as work focuses on the Tailings Management Facility (TMF), albeit it isexpected that from 2027 the TMF should no longer be a constraint on throughputlevels, and lower recoveries and throughput in 2027/28 (the trip may reveal howconservative, or otherwise, the new guidance is). The Teck site visit comes aheadof the release of the shareholder circular in mid-November and the shareholder voteon the Anglo merger on 9 December. Refer to our latest Anglo Teck merger analysisfor further details. 2 November 2025Metals & MiningMetals & Mining ANTO’s site visit will include an update on its Chilean asset base as well as a visitto the Centinela mine and growth project. Copper production guidance for 2025 isexpected at the bottom of the range (660-700 kt), and the site visit follows the recentQ3 and guidance update; the company provided 2026 guidance for the first time at650-700 kt, 6% below Bloomberg consensus (715 kt) at the mid-point due toanticipated lower grades at Centinela. On its growth projects, construction of the$4.4bn (gross capex before offsets) Centinela Second Concentrator (+170ktpacopper equivalent production) remains on track and on budget with first productionexpected in 2027, while at Los Pelambres, the 'Growth Enabling Projects' are alsoreportedly on track (concentrate pipeline and desalination plant expansion). Week ahead In addition to production and financial results highlighted above (Anglo, GLEN,FM),Valereported solid Q3 financial results, but did not announce any additionalshareholder returns: Adjusted EBITDA ($4.4 bn) was 5% ahead of consensus,driven by lower unit costs and lower Brumadinho related expenses (only $30m inQ3). Base metal unit cost guidance has been lowered again due to strongoperational performance and higher gold price assumptions. Reporting for the mining sector largely concludes next week for our coverage, withQ3 financial results from Lundin Mining on Wednesday, 5 November. Our reportingcalendar, estimates vs consensus and preview links are provided below (Fig 1-3). Data & news flow Rio and China's Chinalco are reportedly discussing an asset-for-equity swap whereChinalco would exchange part of its Rio stake for interests in key assets likeSimandou and Oyu Tolgoi, potentially freeing Rio to restart buybacks and strategicdeals.China's MIIT proposes tighter steel capacity swap rules to tackleovercapacity. Angola submits bid for Anglo American’s majority De Beers stake.Ivanhoe reported a significant drop in its Q3 2025 profit while maintaining its 2025copper production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula at 370-420 kt. China’s BF capacityutilisation rate for the week ending 23 Oct stood at 89.9%, down by 0.4 ppts WoW,but up 1.4 ppts YoY. Daily average crude steel outp