流动展示：2025年的失败风险

The Fail Risks of‘25 30 October 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 52.9%, stocks 21.4%, bitcoin 14.9%, IG bonds 9.9%, HYbonds 9.4%, govt bonds 6.7%, commods 6.1%, cash 3.6%, US$-8.3%, oil -16.0% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“I'm long AI, and voting Mamdani,”20-something Brooklyn math teacher. Zeitgeist:“AI already owns the stock market, so bull case now is AI soon owns thebondmarket and drives yields lower.” The Biggest Picture: biggest bear risks heading into 2025 were disorderly rise in bondyields, trade war and Fed hikes (seeBofA Global FMS Nov’24- Chart 2); tail risks failed,10 months later US Treasury volatility (MOVE) at lowest level since 2021 (Chart 3), US-China trade deal, and Fed cutting rates with stocks at highs, credit spreads at lows…whygold up 50%, international 30%, US stocks 20%. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: NYC 5-year CDS spreads pinned to lows (60bps–Chart 5); rate cutsand reach for yield means bonds aren’t worried populist policies to address inequality(64% say cost of living biggest NY mayoral election issue) = higher inflation and debtrisks. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Price is Right: Oracle 5-year CDS highest level in 2 years (Chart 6); AI capex boompaid for by revenues, cash flow…and debt; AI via job losses bullish US Treasuries, but incorporate bond tech spreads have likely troughed…short hyperscaler bonds in’26. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Chart2:The Fail Risks of 2025Nov’24 Global FMS…”Which of the following developments would be most bearish in ‘25?” Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12895138 Timestamp: 30 October 2025 10:45PM EDT Weekly Flows: $36.5bn to cash, $17.2bn to stocks, $17.0bn to bonds, $0.6bn to crypto,$7.5bn from gold. Flows to Know: •Gold: record $7.5bn outflow…follows $59bn inflow past 4 months (Chart 10);•Japan stocks: $5.4bn inflow…biggest since Apr’24;•Tech: $3.5bn inflow…follows record $25bn inflow past 5 weeks;•Materials: record $9.1bn weekly outflow. BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…65.6% stocks (highest since Oct’21), 17.5% bonds(lowest since Mar’22), 10.1% cash (lowest since Sep’18); YTD $17.3bn private clientinflows to equity ETFs, $11.4bn inflows to debt ETFs; BofA private clients buying IG &HY bond & materials ETFs past 4 weeks, selling growth, bank loan and financial ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 6.3 from 6.2 on stronger global stock index breadth,stronger credit technicals, partially offset by slowing inflows to HY bonds & EM debt. On Financial Conditions: froth in risk assets has been knocked by grumpy Powell, US-China trade peace, AI bond issuance, pause in lower yields & spreads; best pain trade forinvestors looking to hedge surprise Q4 tightening of financial conditions after 3rdbiggest year of global rate cuts (129 YTD–Chart 7) = long US$. On Bonds: no data but equity internals telling us Treasury yields heading lower…long-duration tech sectors winning (e.g., XBI, ARKQ), economic sensitive sectors (housing, realestate, retail, employment) that should trough in rate cutting cycle can’t catch; ifhomebuilders XHB break below <$103, real estate IYR <$95, retail XRT <$78 then USTreasury yields have another lurch lower. On Risk: investors remain long risk, positioned to front-run 2026 booms & bubbles,confident Fed put, Trump put, Gen Z put = limited downside; won’t change unless/untilasset allocators