流动展示：银行、债券、繁荣与泡沫

The Flow Show Banks, Bonds, Booms, Bubbles 24 July 2025 Scores on the Doors: Bitcoin 28.0%, gold 27.2%, stocks 10.8%, IG 6.7%, HY bonds6.6%, govt bonds 5.3%, commodities 2.4%, cash 2.3%, oil -7.4%, US dollar -9.3% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal The Price is Right: Trump just fourth President to visit Federal Reserve (FDR 1stin1937 to attend opening of Fed building); US govt spend = $7.1tn, i.e. US govt to spend$2.6bn (= Fed renovation) in next 3 hours & 12 mins; unwillingness/inability to reducegovt spend likely why Trump needs Fed to cut ($1tn interest payments stabilize if fundsrate <3%), why next Fed governor likely to launch Yield Curve Control to control debt. Tale of the Tape: bank stocks YTD: Europe 62%, UK 37%, China 29%, Japan 24%, US17%; banks best expression of 2025 flip from US to global fiscal excess; banks = risk-onuntil bond yields rise to levels that trigger lower banks; hasn’t happened yet (Chart 5) butvigilantes set to pounce if 30-year yields in UK >5.6%, US >5.1%, Japan >3.2%; interestcosts up to 3% of UK GDP ($120bn), 4% of US GDP ($1tn), 4% of Japan GDP ($185bn). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of theTape II: China H-shares quietly up 58% past 2 years, besting ACWI & SPX(40%); China only place bond yields down past 2 years, only place“60/40”working vsUS, UK, EU, Japan where aversion to bonds keeps asset allocators long stocks & credit. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The BiggestPicture: Wall St favoring Trump pivot to lower US tariffs, taxes, rates (SPX9% YTD, besting Treasuries 3%, catching International 22%); in contrast, Main St lessadoring: Trump job approval back near April lows (Chart 2); note Trump“bro billionaire”stocks up 71% since election, Trump small-cap“base”stocks -1% (Chart 3); why policyin too-big-to-fail mode, will intervene to prevent up inflation (tariffs), down jobs (AI). Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com S&P 500vs.Trump approval rating More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience inrelevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystUnauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12855954 Timestamp: 24 July 2025 10:47PM EDT Weekly Flows: $25.9bn to bonds, $13.7bn to cash, $5.8bn to stocks, $3.6bn to crypto,$1.6bn to gold. Flows to Know: •Crypto: $3.6bn inflow, and biggest 4-week cumulative inflow ever ($12.2bn),•Bonds: $25.9bn inflow, biggest since Jun’20 ($25.9bn), across the board inflows (IG$10.3bn, EM debt $5.7bn, Treasuries $3.9bn, HY bonds $2.4bn).•Materials: $5.4bn inflow, 9thconsecutive week, longest streak since Apr'24 ($5.4bn),•Financials: $1.5bn inflow, best 5-week cumulative inflow YTD ($6.7bn). BofA Private Clients:$4.0tn AUM (record high)…64.0% stocks (highest since Mar’22),18.3% bonds, 10.7% cash; asset allocation under-the-hood…Magnificent 7 stocks =15.4% of AUM, US Treasuries (2-30-year) = 3.5%, international stocks = 3.8%, gold =0.4%…de minimis length in Bonds, International, Gold. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:up to 6.4 from 6.3 (highest since Nov’24 US election) onstronger EM stock/bond inflows & lower FMS cash levels, partially offset by bearish S&Phedge fund futures positioning; what would drive BofA Bull & Bear Indicator toward sellsignal level of 8 in coming weeks…a. BofA Global Breadth Rule to exceed 88% (vs. 81%currently), b. BofA Global Flow Trading Rule to exceed 1.0% (vs. 0.8% inflow to globalstock & HY bond funds past 4 weeks), c. BofA FMS cash levels remain <4% of