基于卫星的大气CO₂和CH₄国家、次国家和城市规模（英）

Satellite-Based Measures for TrackingAtmospheric CO₂ and CH₄ at National,Subnational, and Urban ScalesPublic Disclosure Authorized Brian BlankespoorSusmita DasguptaDavid Wheeler Development EconomicsDevelopment Data & Research GroupsOctober 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper 11237 Abstract A scalable method for estimating changes in local greenhousegas emissions from satellite-based atmospheric composi-tion measures is developed and applied in this paper. Theanalysis employs large panels of spatially-referenced, time-stamped atmospheric carbon dioxide observations from theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration’s OrbitingCarbon Observatory-2 and methane observations from theEuropean Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P. The analysis com-putes monthly mean concentration anomalies, defined asdeviations from global trends. Long- and short-term trendregressions were estimated for cells of high-resolution globalgrids, and cell-specific results meeting the classical signifi-cance test (p ≤ 0.05) were identified as positive or negativetrends. These high-resolution findings were aggregated togenerate performance scores for geographic areas of arbitraryscale. The global scalability of the approach was demon-strated with performance assessments for 242 countriesand disputed areas, 3,242 provinces, 36,563 sub-provinces,6,672 Functional Urban Areas, and 670 offshore oil and gas production zones. Regional illustrations were providedfor 11 Southeast Asian countries, alongside a global over-view organized by World Bank regions and income groups.Findings indicated that long-term carbon dioxide decreasesoutnumbered increases, but recent changes (2024–25)revealed a reversal. By contrast, methane displayed largenet decreases in both long- and short-term measures. Theresults highlighted substantial variation across regions andincome groups. Low-income countries showed the stron-gest movement toward reductions, yet their contributionsremain overshadowed by high-income economies, whereperformance has been mixed. It is hoped that this meth-odology will inform global policy dialogue by enablingtransparent and comparable emissions assessments. Theapproach also provides a practical tool for identifying emis-sions hotspots, supporting policy makers at the nationaland subnational levels in developing targeted mitigationstrategies aligned with global climate objectives. This paper is a product of the Development Data Group and the Development Research Group, Development Economics.It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to developmentpolicy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at bblankespoor@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paperis available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Satellite-Based Measures forTracking AtmosphericCO₂andCH₄at National, Subnational, and Urban Scales Brian BlankespoorSusmita DasguptaDavid Wheeler Keywords:Emissions trends, Satellite-based monitoring, emission hotspots JEL Codes:Q53, Q54, Q58, C55, O13 Acknowledgements:We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Global Data Facility. We alsothank the participants of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) OrbitingCarbon Observatory-2/3 Science Team Meeting at the Cooperative Institute for Research in theAtmosphere (Fort Collins, USA – September 2025). 1. Introduction The median projection from widely-used climate models estimates that the current greenhousegas (GHG) emissions trend will increase global temperature around 4oC by 2100 (NSF UCAR,2024).This would far overshoot the 2-degree limit pledged by the 2015 Paris climate accord(COP 21). Several industrial nations reacted to the emerging danger by pledging very steep emissionsreductions at the Leaders’ Summit on Climate in April 2021.Unfortunately, these pledges haveconfronted a striking information shortfall: the near-total absence of directly-measured local andregional GHG data for problem diagnosis, program design and performance assessment.