超威半导体（AMD）：分析师日十大问题

Advanced Micro Devices Inc Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com RatingMarket-Perform Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Price Target AMD Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Ten questions for the analyst day AMD holds its Analyst Day this week on Tuesday, November 11. To assist investors, we list tentopics to pay attention to during the event. AMD typically likes to come out swinging at their analyst day events, though it should benoted that their prior 2022 model did not land all that well (with 2025 likely to miss it acrossall metrics). However, the company appears to be in a different situation today than they were~3 years ago; core markets have normalized following the COVID overhang with an ever-strengthening competitive position vs Intel, and the AI story (especially given OpenAI’s newparticipation) feels more real. That being said, expectations are also far higher; and especiallygiven all the AI nervousness that has percolated to the surface across the AI space in recentweeks the investor meeting comes at an interesting and critical time. We don’t expect any near-term updates (the company just reported earnings last week).But we do expect an update to the longer-term financial model, including growth, margins,and FCF; we note however that Street numbers already embed 30%+ growth and a decentamount of margin expansion (so the company may have to work to keep the party going).Along these lines we would expect to hear updates on the AI TAM (at a minimum we expectit to start with a “T” instead of a “B” this time around), as well as share expectations, any newcustomer engagements/partnerships, and thoughts on gross and operating margin potentialas AI dominates growth. Beyond these points, we would listen for updates on roadmaps (GPU, server and PC CPUs,gaming, embedded), as well as any new thoughts on capital allocation, including thoughts onfurther M&A needs, and the possibility of a dividend given cash generation trends. We rate AMD Market Perform with a $200 price target. Investment Implications AMD (MP, $200):AI expectations remain high, and shares remain expensive. DETAILS AMD holds its Analyst Day this week on Tuesday, November 11. To assist investors, we list ten topics to pay attention to during theevent. What does the new long-term model look like?AMD is known to come out swinging at these events, and (for once) haspotential drivers that may be more plausible than the past, important as the company’s prior effort proved more than overlyoptimistic with their likely 2025 results a clear miss across all metrics (revenue, margins, earnings, and FCF) vs the prior modeloffered up in 2022 even with the benefit of recent AI growth (Exhibit 1,Exhibit 2). But the company is in a different situationtoday than they were ~3 years ago; core markets have normalized following the COVID overhang with an ever-strengtheningcompetitive position vs Intel, and the AI story (especially given OpenAI’s new participation) feels more real. We note however thatexpectations are also higher though; while the prior model called for 20% growth, current sell-side consensus already models in30%+ with gross margins expanding even as AI revenues (currently margin-dilutive) begin to dominate the mix (so something atleast on this order is likely going to be needed to keep the party going). What the long-term AI TAM opportunity?At their ‘Advancing AI’ event in June, AMD indicated that they see the 2028 AIaccelerator TAM >$500B, with inference growing at a >80% CAGR through that period. However, AI demand continues toshow signs of tremendous growth, with hyperscaler capex spending continuing to march higher and OpenAI announcing deals(with AMD and, indeed, all over the place) to procure the compute required for a massive multiyear AI infrastructure buildout.We expect AMD to take this TAM number up sharply (and a minimum we would expect it to start with a “T” instead of a “B”); wewould also love to get the company’s view on how much share they believe is plausible for them to take. What is the long term margin potential (GM, OM, FCF%) of the company, especially as AI begins to dominate growth?How much opex investment will be needed to drive growth from here?With the massive AI opportunity ahead of thempresenting significant growth potential, how is management thinking about longer-term profitability and margins in conjunctionwith revenue growth? What are the drivers of margin expansion from here? How high can they go? Can they expand at all? Howmuch investment will be needed to drive growth? Can we get leverage? And what is a normalized level of FCF generation? How should we think about the trajectory of the OpenAI deployments under their partnership with AMD?How shouldwe think about the first-year deployment, and the pace of the full 6 GW being deployed over the 4-year period? What is potentialnet revenue per GW, and how will that change over the course of the deal? Could we possib