宏观周报：上游回暖，下游地产销售承压

中观总览 上游：本周有色金属板块表现强劲，铜价受海外矿山供应扰动及中国需求回暖预期推动创下阶段性新高；铝价因云南复产进度缓慢维持强势。能源化工领域受地缘政治因素影响，国际油价震荡上行，带动下游烯烃链产品成本支撑增强。黑色系方面，铁矿石发运量回升但钢厂补库需求偏弱，价格承压运行。贵金属受降息预期反复与避险情绪双重影响维持高位震荡。整体来看，供应链稳定性与需求复苏节奏仍是各品种价格波动的核心驱动因素。 中游：本周中游装备制造领域持续活跃。光伏组件排产率维持高位。新能源汽车产业链保持强劲，动力电池装机量同比显著增长，但材料端成本传导压力持续。工业自动化领域需求分化，工业机器人产量受电子等行业资本开支谨慎影响仍待复苏。出口导向型行业如家用电器、船舶制造延续较好表现。 下游：本周下游地产领域政策效果初显，核心城市二手房带看量及成交活跃度环比提升，但新房销售有所回落。整体销售额仍承压，市场信心的全面恢复尚需时日。消费市场方面，海南离岛免税新政推动销售额同比回升较多。 细分行业 大农业：本期棕榈油、棉花价格小幅回升，鸡蛋价格回升较多；苹果库存堆积。 能源：本期国际油价、液化天然气价格震荡上行。 采矿业：本期有色价格方面铜、镍、铅、锌上行，黑色价格方面焦煤上行，热卷和螺纹震荡；有色库存方面铝、铅上行，黑色库存方面螺纹下行，焦煤上行。 化工：本期苯乙烯价格回落，其余化工品小幅震荡；对二甲苯、甲醇库存上行，尿素库存小幅回落。 基建：本期混凝土价格持稳，水泥价格小幅上行；混凝土产能利用率小幅回落，水泥出库量提升。 地产：本期北京、上海、福州、合肥商品房销售额回落。其余重点监控城市商品房销售回升。 物流运输：国内航班班次小幅回升。水路运输量回落，美西航线运价指数回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................5三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................6四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：三大产业用电量................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业PPI同比..............................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织服饰市场景气指数....................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政营业数据：快递业务量............................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价........................................................................................................................................................